The old-crop corn balance sheet in Thursday’s USDA monthly supply/demand report held a bearish surprise, while the soybean and wheat markets received supportive news on old-crop usage.
With the trade expecting a cut in old-crop corn stocks, USDA raised its 2011-12 U.S. corn carryout estimate by 50 million bushels to 851 million bushels, reflecting a 50-million-bushel cut in projected feed/residual usage due to expectations for a large, early 2012 winter wheat crop to boost wheat feed usage this summer.
The new USDA corn carryout number was above trade estimates that averaged 758 million bushels in a range from 660-801 million, according to a survey of 19 analysts done by Dow Jones Newswires.
Thursday’s report raised the projected world corn carryout for 2011-12 by about 3 million metric tons as slower U.S. usage and larger production in Brazil more than offset usage increases elsewhere. USDA raised its Brazilian crop forecast by 5 million tons, while leaving Argentina’s crop at 21.5 million tons. Chinese imports were raised by 1 million tons.
USDA cut its 2011-12 soybean carryout estimate by 40 million bushels to 210 million, compared with trade estimates averaging 221 million bushels in a range from 200-250 million bushels and last year’s 215-million-bushel carryout. Projected U.S. soybean exports and the expected domestic crush were raised for the second straight month.
The world soybean balance sheet was also supportive with USDA lowering the projected 2011-12 world soybean carryout to 53.2 million metric tons from 55.5 million. USDA cut its forecast for Argentina’s crop by 2.5 million tons to 42.5 million and lowering its estimate of Brazil’s crop by another 1 million tons to 65 million.
USDA cut its old-crop wheat carryout forecast by another 25 million bushels, to 768 million compared with trade estimates averaging 781 million bushels in a range from 756-800 million bushels. Old-crop exports were raised another 25 million bushels to 1.025 billion due to stronger-than-expected sales and shipments during April.
USDA also lowered its world 2011-12 wheat carryout significantly to 197.0 million tons from 206.3 million in April due to stronger-than-expected feed usage and a downward revision in beginning stocks. That’s a cut of 4.5% or 9.3 million tons.