Market News & Headlines >> Larger Corn, Soy Crops and Carryouts Expected in 2023/24

USDA is expected to raise its estimate of 2022/23 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks and project significant increases in stocks for 2023/24 when it releases its May Supply/Demand Report on Friday.

On average, the grain trade expects USDA to peg the 2022-23 U.S. corn carryout at 1.366 billion bushels, up from an April estimate of 1.342 billion, with expectations ranging from 1.242-1.472 billion bushels, based on a Reuters News Service survey of 19 analysts.

USDA is expected, on average, to project a 2023/24 U.S. corn carryout of 2.094 billion bushels, up 53% from this year’s expected carryout, compared with an earlier projection of 1.887 billion bushels the agency made at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. Trade expectations for the 2023/24 carryout range from 1.700-2.462 billion bushels.

The trade on average expects USDA to peg the 2022/23 U.S. soybean carryover at 212 million bushels, only marginally higher than USDA’s April estimate of 210 million, with trade estimates ranging from 179-250 million bushels.

USDA is expected, on average, to forecast a 2023/24 U.S. soybean carryout of 293 million bushels up 38% from the expected 2022/23 carryout but only 3 million bushels above the estimate USDA made at the Ag Outlook Forum. Trade estimates of the 2023/24 soybean carryout range from 225-371 million bushels.

Corn and soybean ending stocks are expected to rise next year primarily due to a rebound in production of both crops.

Trade expectations for Friday’s USDA corn crop estimate average 15.120 billion bushels in a range from 14.550-15.300 billion bushels. The average of expectations is 10.1% above the final 2022 crop size, although it is only 35 million bushels above USDA’s February forecast.

USDA on average is expected to peg 2023 U.S. soybean production at 4.494 billion bushels, with trade expectations ranging from 4.417-4.530 billion. The average of expectations represents and increase of  5.1% from 2022 production, but is down 16 million bushels from USDA’s February forecast.