Market News & Headlines >> Little News in USDA Supply/Demand Report
The monthly Supply/Demand report released by USDA on June 10 did not contain significant fresh news for the grain or soybean markets and generated little reaction from futures markets.
USDA cut its U.S. soybean carryout estimates slightly more than many had expected due to stronger-than-expected spring export demand, but an increase in projected 2021/22 exports was well anticipated based on weekly sales data.
USDA pegged 2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 205 million bushels compared with its May estimate of 235 million bushels and trade expectations that averaged 219 million bushels in a range from 175-240 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Projected old-crop exports were raised by 30 million bushels to 2.170 billion bushels.
Based on the smaller old-crop carryout, USDA lowered its 2022/23 soybean ending stocks forecast to 280 million bushels from 310 million bushels compared with trade estimates that averaged 294 million bushels in a range from 250-355 million.
USDA’s U.S. corn balance sheet was mildly negative for the corn market as the agency cut its forecast for 2021/22 U.S. corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2.450 billion due to a slowing sales pace and raised its projected U.S. carryout by 45 million bushels to 1.485 billion compared with trade estimates that averaged 1.437 billion bushels in a range from 1.386-1.500 billion.
USDA also raised its forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks by 40 million bushels to 1.400 billion based on the slower old-crop export sales, which were slightly offset by small increases in expected food/seed/industrial use. USDA’s estimate was toward the high side of trade expectations that averaged 1.351 billion bushels in a range from 1.391-1.505 billion.
USDA left its projected 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout unchanged from May at 655 million bushels, toward the low end of trade estimates that averaged 666 million bushels in a range from 645-715 million. USDA raised its projected 2022/23 U.S. wheat carryout by a modest 8 million bushels to 627 million bushels compared with trade estimates that averaged 623 million bushels in a range from 550-680 million.