Market News & Headlines >> Smaller U.S. Wheat Crop, Stocks Expected for 2020/21
The wheat market on Tuesday will receive USDA’s first survey estimate of the 2020 U.S. winter wheat crop as well as the agency’s first monthly estimate of 2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks.
The trade on average expects USDA to peg the 2019-20 U.S. wheat carryout at 974 million bushels, just 4 million above USDA’s April estimate, according to a Bloomberg survey of 25 analysts. USDA could potentially cut projected old-crop exports further, based on the pace of shipments to date.
The U.S. wheat carryout is expected to fall in 2020/21 due to an expected drop in U.S. production, but the decline in ending stocks may be limited by weaker demand. Pre-report estimates of the 2020-21 carryout average 824 million bushels in a range from 696-971 million. The trade estimates compare with a 2020/21 carryout forecast of 777 million bushels made by USDA at its annual Outlook Forum in February.
USDA is expected to forecast a decline in U.S. wheat production versus last year due to lower planted acreage and crop issues including a mid-April freeze that likely damaged some fields in the Plains HRW wheat belt.
Pre-report estimates of U.S. all-wheat production for 2020 average 1.848 billion bushels in a range from 1.773-1.970 billion compared with last year’s 1.920-billion-bushel crop. Pre-report trade estimates of U.S. all-winter wheat production average 1.246 billion bushels in a range from 1.200-1.318 billion compared with last year’s crop of 1.304 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Trade estimates of the HRW wheat crop average 741 million bushels in a range from 678-812 million compared with last year’s crop of 833 million bushels. Pre-report estimates of U.S. SRW wheat production average 277 million bushels in a range from 220-305 million bushels compared with last year’s 239-million-bushel crop. Trade expectations for white winter wheat production average 227 million bushels in a range from 202-239 million compared with last year’s crop of 232 million bushels.