Market News & Headlines >> Trade Awaits USDA's 2022/23 Supply/Demand Forecasts
USDA is expected to cut its forecasts of 2021/22 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks further in Thursday’s monthly Supply/Demand report, but it is USDA’s first monthly projections for 2022/23 ending stocks that the grain trade will focusing on.
USDA is expected to forecast that U.S. ending corn ending stocks will decrease slightly in 2022/23, while soybean ending stocks will increase modestly, with stocks of both crops remaining at historically tight levels and prices remaining elevated.
Trade estimates of the 2022/23 U.S. corn carryout average 1.352 billion bushels in a range from 988 million to 1.654 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 22 analysts. Pre-report expectations for 2021/22 ending stocks average 1.412 billion bushels in a range from 1.340-1.456 billion bushels compared with USDA’s April forecast of 1.440 billion.
Trade expectations for the 2022/23 soybean carryout average 317 million bushels in a range from 187-48 million bushels. Pre-report estimates of the 2021/22 soybean carryout average 225 million bushels in a range from 175-260 million bushels compared with USDA’s April forecast of 260 million.
The grain trade has a good idea of what USDA will forecast for 2022 U.S. corn and soybean production as the agency can be expected to use the results of its March planting intentions survey along with weather-adjusted trend-line yields of 181 bushels per acre for corn and 51.5 bushels per acre for soybeans. The main focus for the trade will be USDA’s initial estimates of 2022/23 demand.
Pre-report estimates of the 2022/23 U.S. wheat carryout average 659 million bushels in a range from 550-854 million bushels. Pre-report expectations for the 2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 686 million bushels in a range from 650-738 million compared with USDA’s April forecast of 678 million.
USDA’s wheat carryout projection for 2022/23 will depend heavily on its estimate of crop production. USDA is due to release its first survey estimate of winter wheat production on Wednesday along with the Supply/Demand report, but projected spring wheat/durum output will be based on the March planting intentions and weather-adjusted trendline yields.