Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Peg March 1 Hog Herd at 4-Year Low

USDA is expected to confirm that the U.S. hog herd continued to shrink during the December-February quarter despite a stabilization of the breeding herd.

Trade estimates of the total March 1 U.S. hog herd average 98.8% of a year earlier in a range from 97.1%-99.5%, according to a Reuters survey of five analysts. At the average of trade estimates, the March 1 hog herd would be the smallest in four years at 73.046 million head, down 887,000 head from 73.933 million a year earlier.

Reduced sow slaughter during December-February suggests a stable breeding herd.  Pre-report estimates of the number of hogs kept for breeding as of March 1 average 100.1% of a year earlier in a range from 99.4%-100.5%.

Pre-report expectations for the March 1 market hog inventory average 98.7% of a year earlier in a range from 97.2%-99.5%. At the average of trade estimates, the market hog inventory would total 66.838 million head, down 880,000 head from a year earlier.

Trade estimates of the December-March pig crop average 101.3% of a year earlier in a range from 100.4%-102.6%. Estimates of December-February farrowings average 100.4% of a year earlier, while estimates of the number of pigs per litter average  101.0%.

Pre-report estimates of March-May farrowing intentions average 99.7% of a year earlier, while estimates of June-August farrowing intentions average 100.6%.