Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Pegging Yields Below Trend

The grain trade is expecting Thursday’s USDA crop report to show below-trend national average corn and soybean yields following adverse weather earlier in the growing season. 

Trade estimates of the 2017 U.S. corn yield average 165.9 bushels per acre in a range from 162.6-169.0 bushels, according to a survey of 29 analysts by Bloomberg News.  The trade average yield estimate is below both USDA’s weather-adjusted trend-line estimate of 170.7 bushels per acre and the 20-year linear trend yield of 167.2 bushels.

The same survey showed trade estimates of U.S. corn production averaging 13.807 billion bushels in a range from 13.529-14.070 billion bushels. The average of trade estimates is 3.1% below USDA’s July crop projection of 14.255 billion bushels and 8.9% below last year’s record large crop of 15.148 billion bushels. 

Trade estimates of the 2017 U.S. soybean yield average 47.4 bushels per acre in a range from 46.5-49.0 bushels per acre, compared with last year’s record high 52.1 bushels per acre and USDA’s weather-adjusted trend-line forecast of 48.0 bushels 

Pre-report estimates of U.S. soybean production average 4.203 billion bushels in a range from 4.122-4.346 billion compared with USDA’s July estimate of 4.260 billion bushels and last year’s record large 4.307 billion bushel crop.