Market News & Headlines >> Brazil Could Surpass Argentina as Top Meal Exporter

Argentina is set to lose its status as the world's top soymeal exporter to Brazil in the wake of the historic drought that devastated its 2022/23 soybean crop, the country’s Rosario Grains Exchange said in a report released on Tuesday.  

The Rosario Exchange predicted Argentina's soymeal production will plummet 36% from the previous season to total only about 28 million metric tons, and pegged Argentine soymeal exports at 20 million tons, the smallest since 2003, down from 2021/22 exports of 23.5 million tons.

In contrast, the exchange notes that Brazil’s soymeal exports are expected to total 21 to 23 million tons according to various sources. If Brazil does surpass Argentina as the world’s leading soymeal exporter, it would be for the first time in 26 years.

USDA in March forecast Argentina’s soymeal exports at 24.9 million tons, but that was based on a soybean crop estimate of 33.0 million tons. USDA is expected to slash its estimate of Argentina’s crop in its upcoming April Supply/Demand report. USDA seems likely to reduce its forecasts for Argentina’s soymeal production and exports as a result.