Market News & Headlines >> Mixed Expectations for USDA Grain Stocks Report

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report due out Friday morning is expected to show Sept. 1 corn and soybean stocks were just slightly smaller than USDA’s current estimates of 2022/23 ending stocks, while Sept. 1 wheat stocks are expected to come in marginally below a year earlier.

Trade estimates of Sept. 1 corn stocks average 1.439 billion bushels, 13 million below USDA’s current 2022/23 ending stocks forecast, in a narrow range from 1.320-1.506 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 21 analysts. Last year, Sept. 1 corn stocks came in 81 million bushels above the average of trade estimates but they have come in below the trade average six of the past 10 years.

Pre-report estimates of Sept. 1 soybean stocks average 244 million bushels, 30 million bushels below last year, but just 6 million below USDA’s current 2022/23 ending stocks forecast in a range from 216-270 million bushels. Sept. 1 soybean stocks in 2022 came in 82 million bushels above the average of trade estimates, but have been below the trade average six of the past 10 years.

Pre-report expectations for Sept. 1 U.S. wheat stocks average 1.770 billion bushels, a marginal 8 million bushels below a year earlier, in a range from 1.694-1.852 billion bushels.  Over the past 10 years, Sept. 1 wheat stocks have been above the average of trade expectations five times and below the average five times.