Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Cut Corn Carryout Forecast

USDA is expected to lower its forecast for 2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks in Thursday’s monthly Supply/Demand report after its quarterly Grain Stocks survey showed smaller-than-expected March 1 corn stocks.

However,  the agency is expected to raise its projected U.S. wheat carryout after March 1 wheat stocks topped trade expectations. Although March 1 soybean stocks were in line with expectations, USDA could also raise its soybean carryout estimate based on the continued slow pace of U.S. exports.

Trade estimates of the U.S. corn carryout average 2.102 billion bushels, 70 million below USDA’s March estimate, in a range from 2.025-2.191 billion, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 18 analysts.

The lower-than-expected March 1 corn stocks total suggests USDA could raise its corn feed/residual use forecast slightly from the March level of 5.675 billion bushels. USDA could also raise its estimate of 2023/24 corn-for-ethanol use slightly further based a stronger-than-expected usage pace during September-February.

Pre-report estimates of the U.S. wheat carryout average 690 million bushels, 17 million above USDA’s March estimate in a range from 670-720 million bushels. The larger-than-expected March 1 stocks suggest USDA may lower its wheat feed/residual use estimate and the agency could lower its U.S. export forecast slightly further as well.

Pre-report expectations for the 2023/24 U.S. soybean carryout average 317 million bushels, a marginal 2 million above USDA’s March estimate in a range from 300-340 million bushels.