Market News & Headlines >> USDA Lowers Corn, Soy Carryout Forecasts

USDA cut its forecasts for 2022/23 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks on Monday reflecting the lower production expectations for both crops, but also trimmed its expectations for annual usage based on tighter supplies.

USDA pegged the 2022/23 U.S. corn carryout at 1.219 billion bushels, down 12.2% from a previous estimate of 1.388 billion bushels and 20.1% below last year’s estimated carryout of 1.525 billion bushels. The USDA carryout estimate compared with trade estimates that averaged 1.195 billion bushels in a range from 980 million to 1.412 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News Survey of 26 analysts.

USDA cut its forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn usage by 250 million bushels, partly offsetting a 416-million-bushel cut to expected production. The agency cut its forecast for 2022/23 U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels and also trimmed expected feed/residual use by 100 million bushels, while cutting 50 million bushels off of expected corn-for-ethanol use.

USDA estimated the 2022/23 U.S. soybean carryout at 200 million bushels, down 18.4% from an August estimate of 245 million and 16.7% from last year’s revised carryout of 240 million bushels. The USDA estimate was below trade estimates that averaged 246 million bushels in a range from 203-335 million bushels, according to the Bloomberg survey.

USDA cut its forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean use by 93 million bushels, partly offsetting a 153-million-bushel cut to expected production. USDA slashed its forecast for 2022/23 U.S. soybean exports by 70 million bushels and cut its expected U.S. soybean crush by 20 million bushels.

USDA left its 2022/23 U.S. wheat carryout forecast unchanged from August at 610 million bushels, down from last year’s 660 million. The USDA forecast was 8 million bushels below the average of trade expectations.