Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Brazil Crop forecasts Slightly

The grain trade is expecting USDA’s to lower its estimate of Brazil’s soybean and corn crops slightly in  Friday’s monthly Supply/Demand report, while estimates of Argentina’s production are expected to be little changed.

Trade estimates of Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop average 160.1 million metric tons in a range from 156-162 million tons compared with USDA’s November estimate of 163.0 million tons.  

However, USDA has rarely changed its estimates of Brazilian production in December. Most recently, in 2020, it raised Brazil’s projected soybean crop by 2.0 million tons in the December Supply/Demand report. The last time it cut Brazil’s projected soybean production in December was in 2008.

Pre-report estimates of Brazil’s 2023/24 corn production average 127.2 million metric tons in a range from 125.0-129.0 million tons compared with USDA’s November crop estimate of 129.0 million tons.

Trade estimates of Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production average 48.2 million metric tons in a range from 44.0-50.0 million tons compared with USDA’s November estimate of 48.0 MMT,  Pre-report expectations for Argentina’s corn crop average 54.7 million metric tons in a range from 53.0-55.0 million tons compared with USDA’s November estimate of 55.0 million tons.