Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Lowering Carryout Estimates

USDA’s March Supply/Demand report due out on Wednesday morning should hold more interest for the grain trade than a normal March report  as traders try to sort out the impact on grain markets of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

USDA is expected to lower its estimates of 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks of corn, wheat and soybeans in the report.

Trade expectations for USDA’s U.S. corn carryout estimate average 1.479 billion bushels in a range from 1.390-1.540 billion bushels compared with USDA’s February forecast of 1.540 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey. USDA could potentially raise projected U.S. corn exports due to the disruption of Ukraine’s corn exports.

Pre-report trade estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout average 628 million bushels in a range from 569-658 million compared with USDA’s February forecast of 648 million bushels. USDA could raise its projection of U.S. wheat exports due to the disruption of exports from Ukraine and Russia.

USDA is expected on average to cut its forecast of 2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks by 14.5%. Pre-report trade estimates of the 2021 U.S. soybean carryout average 278 million bushels in a range from 182-325 million bushels compared with USDA’s February estimate of 325 million bushels. USDA should raise its forecast for 2021-22 U.S. soybean exports due to reduced crop production in South America and the current pace of U.S. soybean export sales and shipments.