Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Lowering Corn, Wheat Stocks Forecasts

USDA is expected to lower its forecasts for 2020/21 U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks due to lower-than-expected production and raise its soybean stocks estimate marginally when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report on Thursday morning.

Pre-report expectations for USDA’s 2020/21 U.S. corn carryout average 1.297 billion bushels in a range from 1.065-1.297 billion bushels compared with USDA’s July forecast of 1.432 billion bushels. Trade expectations for 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks average 1.096 billion bushels in a range from 1.042-1.172 billion compared with USDA’s July forecast of 1.082 billion.

The lower 2021/22 carryout reflections largely reflect lower production expectations, with trade estimates of the U.S. corn crop averaging 15.004 billion bushels compared to USDA’s July forecast of 15.165 billion. However, traders will also be watching for USDA to raise projected U.S. corn exports due to falling estimates of Brazil’s crop and exports.

Trade expectations for USDA’s 2020/21 U.S. soybean carryout estimate average 159 million bushels in a range from 115-236 million compared with USDA’s July forecast of 155 million bushels. The carryout is seen coming in slightly above USDA’s July forecast even though trade estimates of U.S. soybean production average 4.375 billion bushels versus USDA’s July forecast of 4.405 billion.

USDA’s projected old-crop soybean carryout is expected to grow larger. Pre-report trade estimates of the 2020/21 U.S. soybean carryout average 148 million bushels in a range from 130-167 million bushels compared with USDA’s July forecast of 135 million bushels.

Pre-report expectations for USDA’s 2021-22 U.S. wheat carryout average 644 million bushels in a range from 590-741 million bushels compared with USDA’s July forecast of 665 million bushels. Lower production is expected to result in smaller supplies. Trade estimates of U.S. 2020/21 all-wheat production average 1.723 billion bushels in a range from 1.675-1.777 billion, compared with USDA’s July estimate of 1.746 billion bushels.