The grain trade expects USDA to make only minor changes in its estimates of U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 in Tuesday morning’s monthly Supply/Demand report, but there are ideas the U.S. corn carryout may be cut due to continued strong export demand for U.S. corn.
Trade estimates of 2024/25 U.S. corn ending stocks avg. 1.527 billion bushels in a range from 1.440-1.590 billion compared with USDA’s January estimate of 1.540 billion bushels, according to a survey of 26 analysts by Bloomberg News. Pre-report estimates of U.S. corn exports average 2459 billion bushels versus USDA’s January estimate of 2.450 billion.
USDA is largely expected to leave its U.S. soybean carryout estimate unchanged. Pre-report trade estimates of the carryout average 377.5 mil. bu., just slightly below USDA’s January estimate of 380 million in a range from 335-405 million. Trade estimates of U.S. soybean exports average roughly 1.827 billion bushels versus USDA’s January forecast of 1.825 billion.
Pre-report estimates of the U.S. wheat carryout averaged 799 million bushels, just 1 million above USDA’s January estimate of 798 million bushels in a range from 785-823 million bushels. USDA could potentially cut its forecast for U.S. wheat exports, though, as wheat export sales continue to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach its current forecast of 850 million bushels.
