GRAIN COMMENTS
ADVICE REMINDER: CORN HEDGERS were earlier advised to buy Mar. 2026 corn futures at $4.25 1/2 stop against 10% of expected 2025 production to exit the current short hedge. If filled, this will leave us 20% hedged with options strategies.
Corn futures range from 1/4 cent lower to 2 cents higher at 11:50 a.m., while soybean futures ranged from 1 1/2 cents to 2 3/4 higher and wheat futures range from 3/4 of a cent to 3 1/2 cents lower. Cotton futures range from 28 to 34 points higher, while rough rice futures are 4.5 to 5 cents lower.
Looking at other markets, crude oil futures are now 20 to 24 cents higher in choppy price action as traders continue to await news out of talks between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies.
The dollar index is 0.38% higher despite a dip in Treasury yields. Most-active Dec. gold futures are now $3.70 lower under possible pressure from decreasing geopolitical concerns after Hamas reportedly told mediators it approves of the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal.
U.S. stock indexes are marginally lower in continued cautious trade as investors continue to await news on the meetings in Washington. There is also caution ahead of Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address expected to provide more direction on interest rates.
Corn futures rallied strongly in the first 30 minutes after reopening this morning, but the strength has since faded with most-active Dec. futures near unchanged on the day. Dec. corn now has nearby chart resistance at $4.08, with nearby support at $4.01 1/4. Mar. corn has traded as high as $4.25 1/4 and has nearby chart support at $4.18 3/4.
Soybean futures also rallied in the first 30 minutes after they reopened this morning. Futures have faded slightly off of their highs but remain above midrange for the day. Most-active Nov. futures have nearby chart resistance at $10.48 3/4-$10.49 1/4, with nearby support at $10.34 1/2.
USDA this morning pegged U.S. corn export inspections for the week ended Aug. 14 at 41.4 mil. bu., down from 59.9 mil. a week earlier, but up from 47.9 mil. a year earlier. Export inspections for the marketing year to date totaled 2.528 mil. bu., up 28% from a year earlier.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totale 17.4 mil. bu., down from 20.0 mil. a week earlier but up from 14.9 mil. a year earlier. Soybean export inspections for the marketing year to date totaled nearly 1.796 mil. bu., up 11.6% from a year earlier.
Early reports from the eastern leg of the annual Midwest crop tour indicate corn observed in eastern Indiana is showing signs of tip-back, likely from heat stress, possibly caused by high overnight temperatures.
Wheat futures rallied strongly on reopening this morning, moving to new session highs, but have already fallen back into the red under pressure from large U.S. supplies, spring wheat harvest progress and expectations for rising export competition. Futures are now working on outside trading days, so higher closes would now be a significant positive sign. But Sep. SRW wheat futures have now matched their contract low at $5.00 3/4. Wheat futures are already technically oversold and corn futures have turned higher, which should limit further price weakness.
USDA this morning reported wheat export inspections for the week ended Aug. 14 at 14.5 mil. bu. compared with 15.2 mil. a week earlier and 13.8 mil. a year earlier.
Russian wheat export prices fell slightly last week amid indications of larger production and slow demand. The Black Sea export price for 12.5% protein Russian wheat for second-half September delivery was $238.50 per MT, down from $239 a week earlier, according to Moscow-based IKAR consultancy. Moscow-based SovEcon estimated the price at $240 at the end of last week, noting it had risen as high as $242 during the week.
Egypt has reportedly agreed to buy at least 200,000 MT of French wheat in private deals with exporters and may have booked more than 400,000 MT, along with several 30,000 MT cargos from Ukraine and Romania.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Livestock futures are higher across the board at noon CT on support from technically-drive buying, strong cash market trade and wholesale beef and pork price strength. Lean hog futures range from 43 to $1.03 higher, with live cattle futures 65 cents to $2.15 higher and feeder cattle futures are $2.78 to $4.95 higher.
Oct. lean hog futures have traded as high as $90.63 after establishing nearby chart support at $89.50. Downside for Oct. still looks limited with the market already about $19 discount to the CME cash lean hog index. Feb. lean hogs have charted a 4-session high of $86.70 after establishing nearby chart support at $85.30. Key nearby resistance for the market is at last week’s high of $87.20.
The composite pork cutout value was $2.38 higher at midmorning at $118.78. USDA did not report midmorning cash carcass values due to packer confidentiality reasons. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 5 cents lower at $109.80. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 478,000 head, down 4,000 vs. last week and down 7,000 from last year.
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are threatening to break out to new highs. Most-active Oct. live cattle futures have pushed to a 3-session high of $232.18, just below their contract high of $232.75 after establishing nearby chart support at $229.23. Feb. live cattle have traded as high as $234.95, setting a new contract high after establishing nearby support at $232.23. Most-active Sep. feeder cattle futures have traded to a new high of $351.35 after establishing nearby support at $345.38.
It has been a normal quiet Monday morning in Plains direct cash cattle markets, with no packer bids or feedlot asking prices reported. It will likely be late in the week again before significant trade develops. USDA has not yet reported cash sales totals for last week. Live trade in the southern Plains occurred at $232 to $237, $3 lower to $2 higher than a week earlier. Dressed trade occurred at anywhere from $376-$386, mostly $384-$386, $3-$5 higher than the previous week. Beef cutout values ranged from $3.57 to $6.81 higher at midmorning with the choice cutout value at $404/14.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); long 1 Dec. 2025 $4.70 put option, short 2 Dec. $5.40 call options on 10% (2-24-2025); long 1 July 2026 $4.70 put option, short 2 July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25); short Mar. 2026 corn futures on 10% (8-5-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25)
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25); aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); Short May 2026 futures on 10% (8-5-25). 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Short Feb. 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings (8-14-25)’; short June 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (8-14-125).
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures; long $225 put options against Oct. 2025 live cattle futures on 50% of 4th qtr. marketings (8-8-25); long $190 put options against Aug. 2025 live cattle futures on 50% of 3rd qtr. marketings (1-29-25).
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers also remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 25% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25). SOYMEAL: long July soymeal futures on 50% (3-5-25); 50% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (3-5-25, 7-3-25); 25% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-2025)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: No sales recommended.
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
