Grain and soybean futures came under further pressure overnight from large supplies, with wheat futures breaking out to new contract lows. Corn futures came under pressure from technically-driven selling and mounting harvest pressure after failing at 6-week highs on Wednesday, but rallied late in the early session to finish with small gains. Soybean futures are working on their third straight losing session under pressure from favorable crop weather and China’s continued absence from the U.S. market. Cotton futures are now slightly lower and well off their overnight highs.
Corn futures mostly ranged from steady to 1 cent higher at the end of early trading, with soybean futures mostly 5 1/4 to 6 cents lower, while wheat futures mostly ranged from 1/4 cent lower to 5 1/4 cents lower. Cotton futures mostly range from 29 to 33 points lower.
Looking at other markets, U.S. crude oil futures are $1.08 to $1.09 lower under pressure from concerns that OPEC-plus members may authorize a further production hike at their meeting this weekend. Pressure on price has also come from American Petroleum Institute data indicating a weekly build of 622,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks compared with the avg. trade expectation for a further drawdown of 3.4 mil. barrels.
The dollar index is slightly higher and near its session high, despite growing concerns about the strength of the U.S. jobs market after Wednesday’s JOLTS data for July showed fewer job openings than unemployment claims for the first time since 2021. Most-active Dec. gold futures are $29.80 under pressure from speculative profit taking after hitting another all-time high on Wednesday.
Based on index futures trade, U.S. stock indexes are set to open narrowly mixed with investors cautious ahead of Friday’s monthly U.S. employment report. Asian stock indexes were mostly higher in Thursday trade. Major European stock indexes are mostly higher in afternoon trade.
The monthly employment survey from private payroll firm ADP indicated the U.S. economy added only 54,000 private jobs in August, compared with trade expectations that averaged 75,000. Weekly U.S. unemployment claims came in at 237,000 compared with trade estimates that averaged 230,000 and the previous week’s 229,000. The U.S. trade deficit for July came in at %78,31 bil. compared with trade estimates that averaged $77.9 bil. and the revised June deficit of $59.09 billion. Investors this morning will be watching the release of the August purchasing managers index (PMI) for the U.S. services sector, expected to come in at 50.8, up from 50.1 in July, indicating increased growth in the sector. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly Petroleum Status report is expected, on avg., to show a weekly drawdown of 2.0 mil. barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks.
Corn futures traded very narrow ranges of 2 1/2 cents or less overnight with most-active Dec. futures holding inside of their Wednesday price range. Dec. corn has nearby chart support at $4.16 1/4, with nearby resistance at $4.18 1/2 and Wednesday’s 6-week high of $4.24 1/4. The market’s 10-day moving avg. is at about $4.11 3/4.
Soybean futures slid to 16-session lows overnight, with most-active Nov. futures trading as low as $10.23 3/4, 1 cent above potential technical support from their 40-day moving average. Nearby chart resistance for Nov. soybeans is now at $10.34 1/4. A Nov. breakout below the 40-day moving avg. would leave no support for the market above $10.00.
There is limited fresh fundamental news to drive corn and soybean price direction today, with USDA’s weekly Export Sales report delayed until Friday due to the Labor Day holiday. Ideas that report will again show strong new-crop export sales may offer some support for corn and soybean futures today.
U.S. soybeans continue to face significant competition from Brazilian soybeans. Brazilian exporters group ANEC forecasts Brazil’s September soybean exports at 6.75 MMT, up from 5.16 MMT in September 2024. Brazil’s September corn exports are seen running 6.37 MMT, down slightly from 6.56 MMT in September 2024.
CME Group Inc. reports deliveries of 126 contracts have been posted against Sep. soybean futures, bring total deliveries for the current delivery period to 718 contracts.
The corn and soybean markets seem unconcerned with prospects for frost in the upper Midwest this weekend. World Weather Inc. says frost is still expected this weekend and possibly Monday in the northern Plains and upper U.S. Midwest and Great Lakes region. Some soybean and corn quality declines are possible.
Limited rainfall is expected in the Midwest, the central and northern Great Plains and Canada’s Prairies (after today) favoring crop maturation and early-season harvest progress.
Wheat futures are under increased pressure from large U.S. wheat supplies and prospects for rising export market competition, amid large supplies in other major exporting countries. Most-active Dec. SRW wheat futures have broken to a new contract low of $5.14 3/4 and are likely headed to test $5.00 in the near term. Dec. HRW wheat futures have hit a new low of $5.04 1/4.
Expectations are for 2025-26 exports from the Black Sea region and the European Union to rise vs. 2024-25 levels. Prospects for another strong crop in major Southern Hemisphere exporter Australia are adding to the supply pressure on prices. On Sept. 1, Australia’s official crop forecaster ABARES estimated the country’s 2025-26 crop will total 33.8 MMT, down 1% from 2024-25, but 2.8 MMT above USDA’s current estimate.
Meanwhile, moisture conditions are mostly favorable for planting of the next U.S. HRW wheat crop, which is already underway in Texas. Early fall moisture has put planting ahead of schedule there and more acres are expected to be planted this year due to favorable conditions.
Rainfall in Ukraine’s central, southern and eastern regions in late August has created satisfactory conditions for the start of winter sowing after a period of drought, agricultural meteorologists said on Thursday.
Livestock futures may open mostly lower this morning under pressure from technically-driven selling after finishing solidly lower on Wednesday. However, lean hog futures weakness may be limited by futures continued discount to the CME cash lean hog index and firm wholesale pork prices. Cattle futures weakness may also be limited by strong cash fed cattle and feeder cattle prices. Feeder cattle supplies remain tight amid the continued suspension of imports from Mexico. Strong wholesale beef prices will also remain a supportive factor for cattle prices.
