CORN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Corn futures bounced 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher, riding the coattails of skyrocketing soybean futures and surging wheat futures, which were boosted by renewed talk of Chinese buying. Strong weekly export inspections also helped boost futures. Gains were limited by Friday’s USDA data indicating ample U.S. corn supplies. Weaker cash basis levels at some Midwest locations were likely a negative market factor. Dec. futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.34 3/4, while Mar. futures rose 4 cents to $4.48 and May rose 3 1/4 cents to $4.55 1/2.
Corn futures clearly lagged behind soybeans and wheat today, but appear to have at least stabilized for now. The absence of follow-through to Friday’s bearish reversals is certainly positive. Dec. futures should have good support at $4.26 1/4-$4.28 1/2 on any further near-term weakness and trend-line support is not too much lower at about $4.19 1/2. Nearby resistance for Dec. is at $4.37 1/4 and at $4.42 3/4. Mar. futures, which are about to become the most-active contract, now have nearby resistance at $4.50 1/2 and need to close above $4.57 to invalidate Friday’s bearish reversal. Nearby chart support for Mar. is at $4.41 1/4-$4.42 1/4, with trend-line support near $4.35.
Friday’s corn futures trading volume of nearly 953,000 contracts was the highest daily volume since Jan. 10, the day USDA released its annual Crop Summary report for 2024. Futures open interest rose about 12,000 contracts on Friday indicating modest fresh selling entered the market.
The corn market continues to see positive signals for export demand, with USDA raising its 2025-26 export forecast by 100 mil. bu. on Friday and releasing a backlog of 18 daily export sales announcements (corrected from 18 by USDA) involving roughly 4.785 MMT (about 188.4 mil. bu.) of corn. The latest positive news came this morning as USDA reported weekly corn export inspections for the week ended Nov. 13 totaled 80.9 mil. bu., up from 58.4 mil. a week earlier and more than double the year-earlier total of 34.4 mil. bushels. Corn export inspections for the marketing year to date were 623.5 mil. bu., up 73% vs. a year earlier.
USDA’s NASS did not release a weekly Crop Progress report today and does not have any listed on its report calendar, so it appears to be done with them for the year. At this point, with corn harvest nearly complete, so it really doesn’t matter to the market anymore. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has still not issued any new information about the resumption of its weekly Commitments of Traders reports. Back on Oct. 1, it issued an announcement stating that it would resume publication of the reports in chronological order. However, we don’t know how long it will take the CFTC to catch up on its reporting.
Producers got what should be positive news on crop input prices late on Friday as President Trump amended his reciprocal tariffs to exempt a number of key fertilizers from those tariffs, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, potash, TSP, DAP and MAP.
Central Illinois spot processor basis bids are steady to 5 cents stronger, ranging from 10 cents under Dec. futures to 10 cents over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the U.S. Gulf are mixed vs. Friday. The CIF bid for November delivery is 7 cents weaker at 74 over Dec. futures and the bid for December delivery is 1 cent stronger at 82 over, while the bid for January delivery is 2 cents stronger at 75 over Mar. futures.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW ADVICE
Soybean futures came charging back to the upside, posting gains ranging from 13 to 32 3/4 cents and wiping out bearish reversals charted on Friday on support from renewed excitement over prospects of U.S. sales to China and a huge National Oilseed Processors (NOPA) crush for October. Strong gains in soybean product prices also supported soybean futures. Expectations for sales to China were boosted by comments made by President Trump late on Friday and further comments from USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins today.
Jan. soybeans jumped 32 3/4 cents to $11.57 1/4, while Mar. futures rose 27 1/4 cents to $11.63 1/4 and May rose 23 1/2 cents to $11.70. Dec. soyoil futures rose 99 points to 51.14 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures rose $8.30 to $330.80.
The soybean futures charts looks spectacular after today’s strong action. After posting bearish reversals on Friday, futures charted even larger bullish reversals today to close at their highest levels in more than 17 months. In fact, futures traded outside of their ranges for the previous 5 sessions and are now working on outside trading weeks. Although soybean futures price action may remain volatile, we expect Jan. soybeans will now head for the $12.00 level. The next significant resistance on the Jan. chart is at $12.11 1/2 and the next major resistance on the weekly most-active soybean futures continuation chart is all the way up at $12.58 1/4.
Soybean futures trading volume rose to an 11-session high of about 426,000 contracts on Friday’s selloff, but remained well below the levels since in late October in the days surrounding President Trump’s meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping. Futures open interest did rise by about 15,000 contracts on Friday, suggesting fresh selling drove the weakness.
Reuters News Service is reporting this afternoon that according to traders, China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, or 840,000 MT (30.86 mil. bu.) today for December and January shipment. Eight or more of the cargos are reportedly for shipment from the U.S. Gulf, with remainder being for January shipment from Pacific Northwest ports. Today’s sales total could wind up larger, traders said.
As we noted at midday, the soybean market also received very good news from NOPA, which pegged the October NOPA member crush at 227.647 mil bu., up 5.1% from September and 13.9% above the October 2024 crus of 199.943 mil. bushels. The October crush obliterated the previous record high for a NOPA monthly crush of 206.604 mil. bu. set last December. The NOPA crush for the first two months of 2025/26 totaled 425.5 mil. bu., 12.9% above a year earlier, with USDA forecasting a rise of 5.1% in the total marketing year crush. It’s still early in the marketing year, but the USDA forecast is looking low right now. The huge crush did push NOPA member soyoil stocks to 1.305 bil. lbs, up 5% from September and 21.4% vs. a year earlier. Stocks were toward the high end of trade expectations.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are steady to 5 cents stronger, ranging from 15 cents under Jan. futures to par with the board, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the U.S. Gulf are stronger vs. Friday afternoon on apparent support from Chinese demand. The CIF basis bid for November delivery is 10 cents stronger at 72 over Jan. futures, while the bid for December delivery is at 82 over and the bid for January delivery is 5 cents stronger at 86 over.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures rallied, climbing with support from soybeans and apparent hopes of more ex-port sales to China. Bull-spreading was a feature. Chicago settled up 12 to 17 cents, closing at $5.44 ¼ in the December, $5.58 ½ in the March and $5.68 ¼ in the May. Kansas City wheat was up 12 to 13 cents, settling at $5.28 ¾ in the December, $5.44 ¾ in the March and $5.56 ½ in the May. Minneapolis wheat was up 3 to 9 cents, settling at $5.73 ¾ in the December, $5.81 ¼ in the March and $5.90 ¾ in the May.
Weekly wheat export inspections of 246,533 metric tons (9.1 million bushels) were shy of trade guesses that range 250,000 to 400,000, and down from 291,443 the prior week. And Friday’s “flash sales” data dump from the government shutdown included only one wheat sale. But rumors persist that China has been looking to book some purchases of U.S. wheat for delivery out of the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon’s news that China has made a large purchase of U.S. soybeans should feed the optimism about wheat sales.
The support for the wheat market does not have any obvious ties to crop concerns, in the U.S. or globally. Wheat establishment in Ukraine and Russia has been favorable this fall, and World Weather Inc. notes good conditions elsewhere including China and Australia. Supplies are also looking comfortable in India: On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the government is considering resuming exports of wheat products after more than three years of restrictions.
Here in the U.S., dryness is an underlying concern in the Plains, as it often is. But the High Plains remain mostly drought-free, and World Weather Inc. says the HRW country will see some significant rains Wednesday into Friday. Southeastern portions of the HRW belt will be most favored for rain, but World Weather says other areas to the west should receive some beneficial rain as well. The area likely to receive the most rain stretches from central Okla-homa to south-central Kansas.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures ended slightly lower, succumbing to pressure from a tumbling stock market and a lack of positive demand news, as traders continued to digest Friday’s bearish USDA crop report. December cotton settled down 13 points to 62.36, after trading a range of 62.13 to 62.82. March cotton settled down 7 points to 64.06. May cotton was down 10 points to 65.25.
The December contract overcame overnight weakness to trade higher today with support from the grains and soybeans, but as the stock market plummeted cotton retreated, touching the contract low set on Friday. It also posted a contract low close. If Friday’s intraday low does not hold, bulls will try to hold at 62 cents, where there is a major low on the intraday chart. From a marketing standpoint, we see more upside than downside from current levels, and will wait for that to play out.
USDA on Friday raised the cotton crop estimate by 900,000 bales to 14.1 million, while raising the yield 7%. The crop is bigger than a year ago in every southern state, and in Texas. The carryout was raised to 4.3 million bales from 3.6 million in September. And changes to the world balance sheet were also unfriendly, with increases to production in China and Brazil. The season-average price for U.S. cotton was cut two cents to 62.0.
Rice futures ended slightly lower. January rice settled down 6 cents to $10.44, after trading a range of $10.42 1/2 to $10.56. March rice settled down 5 1/2 cents to $10.74 1/2.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures ended higher. December settled up $2.125 to $221.275, after trading a range of $216.45 to $222.125. February live cattle was up $2.225 to $221.775, and April live cattle was up $2.250 to $221.825. The market has support from its discount to cash, and it overcame the weakness in the stock market today. The afternoon Boxed Beef report showed Choice down 32 cents and Select up $2.00.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, and survey estimates should be out tomorrow. USDA this morning confirmed that Friday Plains cash trade was light, at $227 in Kansas, down a dollar from the prior week, $228 in Texas, and $225 in Nebraska on a live basis. Dressed trade in Nebraska ranged from $350 to $355. Offers early in the week are at $224-225 in the southern Plains, and $353-355 on a dressed basis in Nebraska. The beef packer margin today was estimated at minus $23.00 per head, compared to minus $40.20 a week earlier.
Feeder cattle futures settled higher. November feeders settled up $1.175 to $339.85, while most-active January gained $5.725 to $326.275 after trading a range of $314.525 to $327.50. March rice settled up $5.20 to $318.55.
Lean hog futures were narrowly mixed. December settled up 8 cents to $78.575, while February was up 5 cents to $79.425 after trading a range of $78.975 to $80.10 and April was down 13 cents to $83.025. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was down 21 cents.
The national negotiated carcass value this afternoon was up 30 cents to $76.14. The lagging CME Lean Hog Index was down 89 cents to $87.94, and was projected to fall another 94 cents tomorrow. The estimated pork packer margin today is $27.15 per head according to HedgersEdge, up from $22.60 a week earlier.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); aside futures; short July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25), long Dec. 2025 $4.35 put options against 10% (11-13-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 45% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25, 11-4-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25)
2025 CROP: 45% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025, 11-4-25); long Dec. $11.00 put options against Jan. 2026 futures on 10% of 2025 production (11-6-25), aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular for-ward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); Short May 2026 futures on 10% (8-5-25). 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular for-ward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Aside futures.
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures and options.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder sellers are aside futures and options. Feeder buyers remain aside fu-tures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 3rd qtr. and 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25, 9-17-25). SOYMEAL: 100% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (3-5-25, 7-3-25, 9-17-25); 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-2025, 9-17-25)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: No sales recommended.
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
NOTE: Along with the potential for profit, there is always a risk of losing money when trading futures and options contracts.
Copyright 2025 by Richard A. Brock & Associates, Inc.
Any unauthorized redistribution or reproduction of this commentary is strictly forbidden.
