USDA reported April corn used for ethanol at 428 million bushels, below our estimate of 444 million. The weaker-than-expected grind was largely the result of record ethanol conversion efficiency, with plants producing an estimated 3.13 gallons per bushel, surpassing the previous record of 3.07 set in January.
While corn demand from ethanol remains historically strong, reaching USDA’s current forecast of 5.6 billion bushels appears increasingly unlikely. Following the April report and our May estimate, the industry would need to average roughly 493 million bushels per month through August to hit that target. We currently project corn used for ethanol closer to 5.54 billion bushels, still one of the strongest years on record but slightly below USDA’s expectation.
April soybean crush totaled 218.5 million bushels, matching expectations and continuing the strong processing pace seen throughout the marketing year. More notably, USDA increased its March crush estimate by 4.4 million bushels, pushing the total to 231.8 million. The revision reinforces the strength of domestic soybean demand and keeps the industry on track for another historically large crush year.
USDA’s April soybean oil data highlighted the continued strength in domestic demand. Soybean oil production reached 4.48 billion pounds during the month, up 7.9% from last year and 15.6% above the five-year average. At the same time, implied disappearance totaled 4.63 billion pounds, running 9.6% ahead of last year and nearly 20% above normal levels, underscoring robust consumption from both food and biofuel sectors.
Despite strong demand, soybean oil stocks remain burdensome due to continued record crush. April ending stocks were reported at 2.44 billion pounds, up 23.6% from a year ago and 6.9% above the five-year average. While stocks declined from the March peak, inventories remain historically large.
