Although this summer has brought ample moisture to most of the Midwest and Plains, as autumn approaches, farmers and grain transporters are potentially looking at a fourth straight year of disruptions on the Mississippi River due to low water levels.
The river at Memphis is now at 0.8 feet (versus a reference point) and is expected to decline steadily over the next couple of weeks according to the National Weather Service. By Sept. 3, the river level is projected to be negative and by Sept. 11, it is projected to be minus 3 feet. The level at which barge restrictions start to go into effect is minus 5 feet.
The river fell to a historic low of minus 10.81 feet in 2022 and fell even lower, to minus 12 feet, in 2023. The low water levels and accompanying restrictions, which tighten as the river falls further, are very negative for basis levels. The 2022 low-water event cost Arkansas soybean farmers $293 million, University of Arkansas researchers have estimated.
Last year had looked like a reprieve, but the river again fell, quickly dropping below minus 10 feet in September and again in November. Low water levels had previously caused barge restrictions in 2015 and 2017.
Although the Corn Belt is mostly drought-free, where dryness does exist is mainly concentrated in the region around Memphis and up into the Ohio Valley. Most of southern Missouri, western Kentucky and western Tennessee are “abnormally dry” according to the latest weekly Drought Monitor. In Arkansas, 60.8% of the state was in moderate drought as of Tuesday, up from 33% the prior week.
