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A Hot, Dry July Looms

Conditions for U.S. corn production have been largely favorable thus far this season, but the extended forecast for July raises some concerns about the key growing period for the crop. The latest 30-day climate outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal July temperatures across nearly the entire U.S. and especially in the eastern Corn Belt. The outlook also favors below-normal July rainfall from the central Plains across much of the Corn Belt, with higher odds for below-normal rains in the eastern Corn Belt.

As of June 16, USDA rated U.S. corn crop conditions 72% good/excellent, down 2 percentage points from a week earlier. That’s still a very strong rating, but Illinois saw a 9% drop. Illinois also saw a big drop in its soybean rating, by 8 points to 61% good/excellent. Overall, the soybean crop was 70% good/excellent. The spring wheat crop jumped to 76% good/excellent, up four points from the prior week and far above the average trade estimate of 71%.

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