Yes and no.
The national planting pace just dipped below the 5 year average for the first time this year the week ending May 5. But, the 5 year average is skewed by 2022 (22% planted) and 2019 (23% planted). So lets take a longer view, below is week 18 % planted since ’80 and ’00.
Note a trend shift since 2000, I believe we’re seeing the shift towards planting beans before corn show up nationally.
Since 2000, we’ve only been slower 6 times. 2008, 09, 13, 14, 19, and 2022. Below is the current 20 year trend line, with the years planting pace was slower than now circled. Clearly, progress this time of year is not a huge factor for final yield. So any price boost we are getting from a delayed planting should be viewed as a gift, not a legitimate risk or reduction in yield potential on a national level.
One final way to look at it is the progress of all years since 2010 shown below. Each of the four instances progress was slower than this year are highlighted for reference.
The bottom line: Are we behind the 5, 10, 15, 20 year averages, sure. Is there a statistically significant impact on yield? No, don’t even need to run the numbers. Don’t get all bulled up quite yet. The next few weeks will tell the story.
And finally, just because we have it, one more look at progress below to see how this year compares to each of the previous 5.
