Weekly COT Highlights – Week Ended Tuesday, March 18
Good morning! We have to take a week off of our thorough commentary on each market, but this weeks COT analysis does include the main take aways and all of the graphics and weekly changes.
Click Here to watch a video explanation of the COT reports.
Click Here to see last week’s COT Analysis
Main Takeaways this Week
- Massive selling in Corn continues, again
- Soybean COT in no-mans-land
- Cotton STILL poised for a massive rally
- New record net long for feeder cattle specs
Corn
Fourth straight week of specs increasing the size of their short positions, not a great sign. Long liquidation did slow down which is a positive. The ‘risk off’ mood may be coming to an end, should be a quiet week while the market awaits the planting intentions report.
Soybeans
No man’s land still, very little change this week, and we expect the same from next Friday’s release.
Wheat
Cotton
We’ve been on the record that large spec short covering could spark a major rally. That looked possible in recent weeks, but has so far failed to materialize. As you can see below, they just keep establishing new record net shorts, but were buyers in the week ended Tuesday. Given the potential for a shocking acreage reduction, depressed prices, what appears to be a technically confirmed bottom, and a historically large net short, we stand by our belief that this market has significant upside.
As risk managers however, we did choose to reward this rally with two 10% sales in the last two weeks. Just because you are bullish a market it does not mean you don’t make any sales!
Rice
Soybean Meal
Lean Hogs
Cattle Complex
