Weekly COT Highlights – Week Ended Tuesday, August 11
This week’s report captured trader positioning just one day ahead of the August WASDE and Crop Production reports. Despite the significance of those releases, traders were surprisingly quiet, with only modest position adjustments across the major grain markets. Large speculators were net sellers of just 34,476 contracts in the combined corn, soybean, and wheat markets. Most of the activity was concentrated in soybeans, where both large speculators and index funds lightened long positions, while wheat saw modest fund buying. Overall, this week’s data suggests traders were more interested in trimming risk than making major bets ahead of USDA’s August report, but there are still several noteworthy positioning shifts worth highlighting.
Main Takeaways this Week
- Corn: Specs finally add new longs.
- Soybeans: New speculative shorts.
- Wheat: Index Funds back as buyers.
- Cotton: Largest Net Long position since 2021.
- Lean Hogs: Large amount of new shorts.
Corn
This week in the corn market, the headline COT story shows both large speculators and index funds as net sellers. Large specs trimmed 3,840 contracts from their net long position, while index funds reduced their net long by 9,967 contracts. Digging deeper into the data, however, reveals a more constructive picture. For the first time in six weeks, large speculators added fresh long positions. While the increase was limited, it appears to mark an important shift, as specs had been unwilling to add new longs for more than a month and a half.
Looking at the broader positioning picture, large speculators remain in somewhat of a no-man’s-land, with their net position sitting near the middle of its historical range and leaving plenty of room to move in either direction. Following what many viewed as a modestly bullish August WASDE report, we will be watching closely to see whether large specs continue adding fresh longs in next week’s data.
Soybeans
Bearish soybean bets began to creep back into the market this week. Large speculators added just 120 contracts to their gross long position while increasing their gross short position by a whopping 16,941 contracts. The result was a 16,821 contract reduction in their net long position. This week’s soybean COT report contrasts with corn in two important ways. First, soybean speculators had been much more willing to add fresh longs in recent weeks, whereas corn traders had remained hesitant. Second, speculators had built a much larger net long position in soybeans than in corn, leaving the market more vulnerable to a long-liquidation selloff.
While some position trimming has already occurred, the large increase in soybean acreage from the August WASDE report raises concerns that additional selling pressure could still be ahead. As a result, next week’s COT data will be important in determining whether this week’s activity was simply profit-taking or the beginning of a broader retreat from the soybean market.
Soybean Meal and Oil
Soybean meal largely followed the soybean market lower this week. Large speculators trimmed 7,690 contracts from their net long position, extending the recent trend of liquidation across the soybean complex. Even after the recent selling, speculators remain net long 54,133 contracts, leaving the market vulnerable to further long liquidation if bearish soybean sentiment persists.
There was little to note in soybean oil this week. Positioning was largely unchanged, with only minor adjustments from both large speculators and index funds. The primary takeaway remains the same as in recent weeks: speculative length remains elevated enough that the risk of additional liquidation cannot be ignored if bearish momentum in the broader soybean complex continues to build.
Wheat
Wheat large speculators were sellers of 13,815 contracts this week, increasing their net short position to 49,398 contracts and marking a second consecutive week of selling. Despite the bearish activity from large specs, the more notable development came from index funds, which added 7,334 contracts to their wheat position. That made wheat the only major grain market to attract fresh index fund buying this week. While overall trader positioning remains bearish, the return of index fund buying suggests some market participants may see value at current price levels, particularly following wheat’s recent recovery from spring lows. Going forward, it will be worth watching whether index funds continue to add exposure and whether large speculators go back to reducing their net short position, as both could provide support to the wheat market.
Cotton
Large speculators pushed their cotton net long position back to its highest level since 2021 this week, adding another 6,977 contracts, and marking a second consecutive week of buying. Speculative enthusiasm for cotton has been a recurring theme throughout 2026. Earlier in the year, traders built bullish positions amid concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. More recently, the focus has shifted back to production concerns, with many traders betting that a disappointing U.S. crop could further tighten supplies. The underlying positioning data remains notably bullish. Large speculator longs climbed back above 115,000 contracts this week, while gross short positions remain near multi-year lows. The combination has pushed the net long position to 81,358 contracts, the largest since 2021. Given how aggressively funds have accumulated cotton exposure in recent months, the key question moving forward is whether adverse crop conditions can continue to justify such an elevated level of bullish positioning, and if not be ready to sell!
Rice
There was little to note in the rice market this week, with large speculators trimming just 137 contracts from their net long position. Overall positioning remains near neutral at 107 contracts net long.
Lean Hogs
Bears piled back into the lean hog market this week, as large speculators added 10,053 new short contracts. Since liquidating their bullish positions following the March highs, hog bulls have shown little interest in rebuilding long exposure. Instead, bearish traders have regained control over the past two weeks, pushing the net short position back to 43,981 contracts, just shy of the record net short of 48,160 contracts. While that reflects overwhelmingly negative sentiment, it also raises the possibility of a meaningful short-covering rally. With speculative positioning once again approaching record bearish levels, it may not take much positive news to spark a bounce from current price lows.
Cattle Complex
Live cattle speculators finally snapped a six-week streak of selling this week, though just barely. Large specs added a modest 612 contracts to their net long position, leaving overall positioning largely unchanged at 38,661 contracts net long. More importantly, the increase was driven by short covering rather than fresh buying. Large speculators exited 2,210 short contracts during the week while liquidating 1,598 long contracts, suggesting the move was primarily driven by profit-taking from bears rather than renewed bullish enthusiasm. After aggressively reducing bullish exposure throughout the summer, this week’s data may indicate sellers are becoming less active. However, it is far too early to call it a meaningful shift in sentiment, and next week’s report will be needed to determine whether buyers are truly beginning to return.
Feeder cattle continued to see light selling pressure, with large speculators trimming another 946 contracts from their position. Large specs remain net short 4,425 contracts, marking a stark contrast to the record net long positions seen just a year ago. Overall, trader sentiment remains cautious as speculators have yet to show much interest in rebuilding bullish exposure.
