U.S. corn exports this year have benefitted from record demand from top export customer Mexico. As the chart at right shows, Mexico’s purchases of U.S. corn are up 271 million bushels or 45.2% from last year. Sales to key customers Japan and Colombia are also up sharply amid lower corn prices. The big outlier continues to be China, with U.S. sales to China down nearly 63% versus last year.
The increase of 75 million bushels USDA made in its 2023/24 U.S. corn export forecast in July looks a bit too optimistic. U.S. export shipments through July 25 of 1.906 billion bushels were up 31.3% from last year and outstanding sales of 268 million bushels were more than double a year earlier. The problem is that with just five-plus weeks left in 2023/24, total old-crop export sales were still 51 million bushels short of USDA’s export forecast. The good news: Advance U.S. corn export sales for next marketing year picked up strongly the past two weeks and are above a year ago.
USDA forecasts 2023/24 U.S. soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels, down 14.7% from a year earlier, but U.S. soybean export shipments of 1.558 million bushels through July 25 were 15.9% below a year earlier. Total old-crop export sales were only 13.7% below a year earlier, but had still not reached USDA’s forecast, and outstanding export sales totaled just 114 million bushels. Weekly export shipments of 20.8 million bushels were the largest since March, but shipments must average about 26 million bushels per week over the final five-plus weeks of 2023/24 to reach USDA’s forecast.
It’s not news that weak Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is primarily responsible for weak old-crop exports. Marketing year sales to no. 1 buyer China are down 21.7% from last year. Total sales to the next three largest U.S. export markets — Mexico, the European Union and Japan, are down just 1.8%. Sales to the rest of the world are also down 34.5%. Advance soybean export sales for next marketing year are off to a very slow start at only 120 million bushels, down 59.6% from a year ago. The good news: Chinese buyers are now showing up, with USDA announcing U.S. sales to China on Thursday and Friday.
USDA forecasts 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports at 825 million bushels, up 16.7% from 707 million last year. U.S. export sales of about 306 million bushels for 2024/25 as of July 25 were 42.3% above a year earlier but slightly behind the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s forecast based on the five-year average pace. Sales have slowed the past two weeks, with competition from low-priced Black Sea wheat rising. Lower prices have attracted a broader range of buyers to U.S. wheat. Combined sales to the top five U.S. export markets are 22% above last year, while sales to the rest of the world are up 74%.
