CORN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Corn futures rallied another 1 to 6 3/4 cents on support from the lower-than-expected Sept. 1 stocks total in USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report. Technically-driven buying also boosted prices, while gains were limited by harvest pressure and soybean market weakness. Dec. corn futures rose 9 3/4 cents to $4.24 3/4 while Mar. futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $4.41 1/4 and July futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $4.55 3/4.
The near-term corn futures chart picture is looking very friendly, with old-crop futures trading to 3-month-plus highs and posting their highest closes since late June. Nearby Dec. futures now have nearby chart resistance at $4.27 3/4. The next resistance area for the market should be in the $4.39-$4.41 area. The top of the market’s recent upward trading channel, now at about $4.31 1/2 could slow the advance somewhat. Dec. would have to close below $4.07 to break that channel. Nearby support is at $4.15 1/2.
Dec. 2025 futures posted their highest close in more than 2 months at $4.54 and now have nearby resistance at $4.57-$4.61 1/4. A close above $4.60 could open further upside to $4.75. Dec. 2025 corn has nearby support at $4.50 1/4.
While Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks of 1.760 bil. bu. were near the low end of trade expectations and 86 mil. below the avg. of expectations, they were still up 29.4% from a year earlier. On-farm stocks of 780.4 mil. bu. were up 176 mil. bu. or 29.1% from a year earlier, while off-farm stocks were up 224 mil. bu. or 33.7%. On-farm stocks equaled 44.3% of total Sept. 1 stocks virtually unchanged from last year, which indicates producers did a better job of moving stocks out on farm storage this summer than we had anticipated.
USDA this afternoon pegged U.S. corn harvest at 21% complete as of Sunday, up from 14% a week earlier and ahead of the 5-yr. avg. pace of 18%. An estimated 75% of the crop was said to be mature, up from 61% a week earlier and ahead of the 5-yr. avg. of 70%. The Illinois harvest was 21% complete up from 14% a week earlier and an avg. pace of 16%, while the Iowa harvest was 11% complete up from 5% a week earlier and on par with the avg. pace. Harvest progress was not lagging the 5-yr. avg. significantly in any state and was well ahead of avg. in Tennessee, Missouri and Kansas.
For more Crop Progress graphics, click here
USDA rated U.S. crop conditions 64% good/excellent, down 1 percentage point from the previous rating, which should mean little to the market this late in the growing season. The S. Dakota crop rating did drop 7 points to 62%.
Central Illinois processor spot corn basis bids are steady, ranging from 45 cents under to 15 under Dec. futures, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the Gulf are steady to stronger vs. Thursday afternoon on slow farmer selling. The CIF bid October delivery is 2 cents weaker at 76 over Dec. futures and the bid for November delivery is 2 cents weaker at 78 over, while the bid for December delivery is at 80 over.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures slipped 5 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents with harvest pressure, month-end position evening and a stronger dollar weighing on prices. Losses were limited by Chinese demand and strength in soyoil and corn futures. USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report had little impact on the market, pegging Sept. 1 stocks 5 mil. bu. below the avg. of trade expectations, but 2 mil. above USDA’s previous 2023-24 ending stocks estimate. Nov. soybeans fell 8 3/4 cents to $10.57, while Jan. futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $10.75 1/4 and Mar. fell 6 3/4 cents to $10.88 1/2. Dec. soyoil futures rose 95 points to 43.31 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures fell $2.50 to $341.60.
It was not too surprising to see soybean futures pull back a bit in the wake of Friday’s strong gains, given the lack of further bullish news in USDA’s stocks report. Futures were technically overbought on short-term indicators going into the day and nearby Nov. beans hit the top of their short-term trading channel on Friday. There’s nothing to suggest the market has topped out, although a further near-term pullback is possible.
Nov soybeans have nearby chart support at $10.52, with further support at $10.31 1/4-$10.34 1/4. Nov. would have to close below $10.17 1/2 on Tuesday to break its upward trading channel. The market has nearby resistance at $10.69 1/2 and at $10.80 1/2-$10.86 3/4. Nov. 2025 soybeans charted a new high for the move at $11.04 1/4 before backing off and have nearby chart support at $10.90.
USDA this afternoon pegged U.S. soybean harvest progress at 26% as of Sunday, double the week earlier progress and up from the 5-yr. avg. of 18%. Harvest progress was also 2 percentage points above the avg. of trade expectations. Some 81% of the crop was estimated to be dropping leaves, up from 65% a week earlier and a 5-yr. avg. of 73%. The Illinois harvest was 24% complete, up from 15% a week earlier and an avg. of 11%, while the Iowa harvest was 27% complete up from 9% a week earlier and an avg. of 21%.
For more Crop Progress graphics, click here
USDA pegged U.S. soybean conditions at 64% good/excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from a week earlier and 12 points above a year earlier. The ratings were unchanged even though the S. Dakota good/ex. rating was down 9 percentage points at 59% and the Ohio good/ex. rating was down 9 points at 44%. The ratings should not have any market impact so late in the growing season. Harvest should continue to move swiftly in areas that were not drenched by remnants of Hurricane Helene. The western and central Midwest are expected to be very dry over the next 10 days, with only very light rains expected in the eastern Midwest.
Total Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were up 48.1% from a year earlier and on-farm soybean stocks came in at 111.2 mil. bu., up 54.4% from a year earlier. The largest jump in stocks by state was in Iowa, where they were up 26.0 mil. bu. from a year earlier at 73.3 million. Minnesota stocks were up 15.4 mil. to 35.5 and Illinois stocks were up 11.5 mil. bu. to 46.0 million.
Brazil faces one more week of limited rainfall. Sporadic, pre-monsoonal, shower and thunderstorm activity began popping up in portions of Brazil’s center west and center south crop areas during the past week, though resulting rainfall was not enough to bolster soil moisture in a significant manner. Another week of similar conditions is expected and then a boost in shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated, World Weather Inc. says.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are 5 cents weaker to steady, ranging from 45 cents under to 20 under Nov. futures, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the Gulf steady to weaker vs. Thursday afternoon. The bid for October delivery is 1 cent stronger at 76 over Nov. futures and the bid for November delivery is steady at 85 over, while the bid for December delivery is at 72 over Jan. futures.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures ended modestly higher, boosted by strength in corn along with dryness in the Black Sea region. Chicago wheat was up 3 to 4 cents, settling at $5.84 in the December, $6.03 ¾ in the March and $6.15 ½ in the May. Kansas City wheat was up 5 to 7 cents, settling at $5.83 ¾ in the December, $5.98 ¼ in the March and $6.07 ½ in the May. Minneapolis wheat was up 9 to 11 cents, settling at $6.19 ¾ in the December, $6.41 ¼ in the March and $6.53 ¼ in the May.
Wheat futures extended gains briefly in the wake of this morning’s USDA reports, reaching new session highs, but the reports held no real news for the wheat market and the market trimmed gains. USDA pegged Sept. 1 U.S. wheat stocks just 6 million bushels below the average of trade expectations and 219 million bushels or 12.4% above a year earlier. USDA’s annual Small Grains Summary report pegged 2024 U.S. all-wheat production just 12 million bushels below the avg. of trade expectations and 11 million below its August estimate.
Strength in corn futures has helped support wheat prices along with continued dry weather in key winter wheat areas of Russia and Ukraine. Dryness in that region is expected to continue for at least the next week according to world Weather Inc. Traders should now continue to focus attention on export prospects, winter wheat planting conditions in key Northern Hemisphere producing regions and crop development in key Southern Hemisphere exporters Argentina and Australia.
Here in the U.S., today’s Crop Progress report showed 39% of the winter wheat crop planted, up from 25% the prior week and near the five-year average of 38%. No state is significantly behind. Kansas is 32% done, while Montana is 61%, Texas is 43%, and Ohio is 17% done. The rains associated with Hurricane Helene across the lower and eastern Midwest provide a welcome soil moisture boost that should help soft red winter wheat prospects. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry over the next two weeks across the Midwest and into the Plains, where dryness is a concern.
For more Crop Progress graphics, click here
USDA this morning pegged U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ended Sept. 26 at 19.7 million bushels, down from 26.6 million a week earlier but up from 15.8 million a year earlier. Wheat export inspections for 2024-25 to date totaled 302.6 million bushels, up 35.1% from a year earlier.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures ended 80 to 90 points higher as traders processed the impact of Hurricane Helene on southeast crops. December cotton settled at 73.61, after trading a range of 72.78 to 73.72. March cotton settled at 75.36. The market had settled lower each of the past three sessions while also posting lower highs and lower lows, and it broke both of those streaks today. However the market remained within Friday’s range, which in the December contract is 71.68 to 73.95.
Hurricane Helene did not provide quite the direct hit on southwest Georgia that was feared, but while wind speeds weren’t quite so bad, there was still several inches of rain on the crop, which will cause losses and quality problems. Today’s Crop Progress report showed a big drop in good/excellent ratings in Georgia, where it fell 26 points to 33% good/excellent. While the catastrophe in North Carolina was well west of cotton country, heavy rains also had an impact on cotton, and USDA reported a 26-point drop to 50% good/excellent. On a national basis, the crop was 31% good/excellent, down six points from last week, and 37% poor/very poor, up four points from last week.
For more Crop Progress graphics, click here
The crop is 20% harvested as of Sunday, up from 14% the prior week and the five-year average of 16%. Georgia is just 6% harvested. Texas is 31% harvested, up from 24% the prior week. The good/excellent rating there is only 22%.
Rice futures ended higher, gaining 21 to 22 cents. November rice settled at $15.29 ½, after trading a range of $14.91 to $15.40. January rice was up 21 cents to $15.48. Today’s Crop Progress report showed 78% of the U.S. crop harvested, up from 71% last week and the average of 67%. Arkansas is 85% harvested, up from the average of 69%.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures ended slightly higher: October was up 3 cents to $183.775, December gained 33 cents to $184.80, and March was up 30 cents to $185.85. The afternoon Boxed Beef report showed Choice up $1.39 and Select up $2.45.
It was a typically quiet Monday in Plains direct cash cattle markets with both feedlots and packers sorting things out after last week’s trade. Feedlots are likely to come out asking a couple dollars over last week’s trade, which occurred at $185 live in the southern Plains and $186-$187 live in Nebraska. USDA reports an additional 1,885 head moved in Friday negotiated trade in Nebraska, taking weekly sales to 28,187 head. Friday sales of 468 head in Kansas pushed weekly sales there to 8,310 head. Packers may back away from the market a bit this week, though, due to negative operating margins. The avg. packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $83.40 per head, down from minus $74.75 per head, on Friday.
Feeder cattle futures ended lower, losing 80 to 85 cents with pressure from strength in corn. October feeders were down 88 cents to $246.20, November was down 80 cents to $244.90, and January was down 83 cents to $238.775. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Friday was up $1.71 to $247.24.
Lean hog futures were mixed. October feeders were up 20 cents to $82.25, December was down 10 cents to $73.275, and February was down 13 cents to $77.375. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was up 9 cents.
The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 4 cents lower at $84.03 but is expected to fall 2 cents on Tuesday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 482,000 head, up 3,000 from last week, but down 5,000 from last year. Last week’s estimated slaughter was up 2.5% from a week earlier, but down 1.8% from a year earlier, with pork production down 1% vs. last year. This does not line up with the weight breakdown in the Hogs and Pigs report, which put the Sept. 1 supply of hogs weighing over 180 pounds at 104.8% of a year earlier.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS:
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts. (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-4-23, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 1-2-2024, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 12-13-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP:40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24).; short $5.00 call options on Dec. 2024 corn futures against 20% (4-18-24), aside futures and options.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended; aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 12-1-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-2023, 7-19-23, 11-15-23, 12-5-23, 1-2-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24).
2024 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-23, 7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-9-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24), aside futures and options.
2024 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24), aside futures.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24).
2025 CROP: 20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP:80% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24); aside futures.
2025 CROP: 10% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24), short July 2025 futures on 10% (9-19-24).
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24).
2025 CROP:20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24); aside futures.
2025 CROP: 10% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24), short July 2025 futures on 10% (9-19-24).
LEAN HOGS: Short Dec. 2024 lean hog futures against 50% of 4th qtr. marketings (9-9-24, 9-26-24); Short April 2025 lean hog futures against 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (9-9-24, 9-26-24); short June 2025 lean hog futures against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (9-26-24).
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures.
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: Short Oct. 2024 Class III milk futures on 25% of 3rd qtr. sales (9-5-24); short Oct. 2024 Class III milk futures on 75% of 4th qtr. sales (5-15-24, 6-17-24, 9-5-24), short Jan. 2025 Class III milk futures on 25% of 1st qtr. sales (9-5-24). We have recorded futures positions for track record purposes. Milk producers were advised to make either cash or futures sales, based on their preference.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: No forward cash purchases advised; long Dec. 2024 futures against 50% of 4th qtr. needs (9-27-24), long Mar. 2025 corn futures against 50% of 1st qtr. needs (9-30-24). SOYMEAL: No forward cash coverage advised. Long Dec. 2024 soymeal futures against 50% of 4th qtr. needs (9-24-24); long Mar. 2025 soymeal futures against 50% of 1st qtr. (9-27-24).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP:100% sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-3-23, 8-30-23, 11-1-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24); 2024 CROP: 45% forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-30-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24, 2-28-24, 3-5-24, 3-14-2024). 2024 CROP: 35% cash forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24), aside futures.
RICE: 2023 CROP:100% cash forward contracted (4-25-23, 5-30-23, 7-20-23, 7-31-23, 8-7-23, 11-22-23, 12-5-23, 1-4-24, 2-13-24, 3-25-24). 2024 CROP:70% forward contracted (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24).
