CORN COMMENTS
Corn futures retreated 2 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents in choppy trade under apparent pressure from harvest-related hedge selling ahead of what should be the most active harvest weekend of the season so far in the U.S. Corn Belt. Renewed weakness in soybean futures also weighed on corn prices. Nearby Dec. corn futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.19 1/2, while Mar. futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $4.35 1/2 and May futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $4.45 1/4.
The corn futures market over the past three days took two steps forward and one back. That’s certainly a pattern we can live with if it continues. For the week, nearby Dec. corn futures suffered a small loss of 3 cents, which we view as a positive, given that producers are now harvesting a record large crop and USDA just “found” 207 mil. bu. of old-crop supplies in Tuesday’s Grain Stocks report.
We remain of the opinion that the corn market has made a major low and will work higher despite harvest pressure, although the near-term upside for prices is certainly not huge. On the negative side, we must also note that Dec. corn futures would only have to close below $4.14 next Friday to put our 5-week Friday close rule back short the market. Dec. futures now have nearby resistance at $4.23 and nearby support at $4.14 3/4-$4.16. Dec. will still need to climb past the gap on its daily chart up at $4.31 1/4-$4.32 3/4 in order to open further upside to at least $4.40-$4.50.
The CFTC did not release its weekly Commitments of Traders data this afternoon due to the government shutdown. It remains to be seen when the shutdown might end. A stopgap spending bill again failed to pass in the Senate today. It seems unlikely that USDA’s monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports will be released next Thursday as scheduled.
The latest NWS 6- to 10-day outlook continues to favor above-normal temperatures for much of the U.S. Oct. 9-13 and favors above-normal precipitation for Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska, with below-normal precip. in the eastern Corn Belt. The 8- to 14-day outlook for Oct. 11-17 looks very similar.
Central Illinois processor spot corn basis bids are steady ranging from 25 cents under Dec. futures to par with the board, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the U.S. Gulf are stronger vs. Thursday afternoon. The bid for October delivery 4 cents stronger at 82 over Dec. futures, while the bid for November delivery is 2 cents stronger at 82 over and the bid for December delivery is 3 cents stronger at 83 over.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures fell back 3 3/4 to 5 3/4 cents in choppy pre-weekend trade as harvest-related hedge selling picked up ahead of the weekend and U.S. export prospects remained weak with China staying away. Pre-weekend speculative position evening also likely weighed on prices. Nov. soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $10.18, while Jan. futures fell 4 3/4 cents to $10.37 and Mar. fell 4 cents to $10.52 1/4. Dec. soyoil futures fell 39 points to 50.05 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures fell 70 cents to $278.60.
Although soybean futures did not finish the week well, it was a strong week overall from a technical standpoint. After charting a bullish key reversal on Wednesday, nearby Nov. soybean futures would up posting a weekly reversal up despite today’s weakness. Nov finished the week with a small gain of 4 1/4 cents. Nov. beans now have nearby chart resistance at $10.28 3/4-$10.31 1/2 and nearby support at $10.16 1/2 and $10.08 1/4. We still think futures will now head back toward the top of their 2025 trading ranges in the near term, which for Nov. beans should mean a move to $10.50-$10.75.
As noted in the corn comments, the CFTC did not release weekly Commitments of Traders data today. Futures trading volume remained elevated relative to levels seen in September on Thursday’s further rally, at about 297,000 head. Total futures open interest inched up about 3,000 head, suggesting modest fresh buying.
Soybean planting in Brazil’s largest growing state of Mato Grosso accelerated rapidly this week. IMEA, the state’s agricultural economics institute this afternoon estimated statewide planting progress at 15.03%, well ahead of last year’s pace of 2.09% and the 5-yr. avg. of 6.1%.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are 4-5 cents stronger, ranging from 31 cents under to 20 under Nov. futures, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the U.S. Gulf are steady to stronger vs. Thursday afternoon. The CIF basis bid for October delivery is steady at 62 over Nov. futures, while the bid for November delivery is 2 cents stronger at 73 over and the bid for December delivery is steady at 62 over Jan. futures.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures were narrowly mixed. Chicago was up ½ cent to $5.15 ¼ in the December, while March and May were unchanged at $5.32 ½ and $5.44 ½ respectively. Other Chicago contracts were lower. Kansas City wheat was down 1 to 2 cents, settling at $4.97 in the December, $5.18 ½ in the March and $5.33 ¼ in the May. Minneapolis wheat was down a penny, to $5.59 ¾ in the December, $5.79 ½ in the March and $5.93 in the May.
All three classes of wheat made new contract lows on Wednesday, and while they rebounded off those lows, they still posted weekly losses. Basis the December contract, Chicago was down 4 1/2 cents on the week, while K.C. was down 8 1/2 and Minneapolis down 8 cents.
Futures continue to struggle to gain upward momentum due to large U.S. supplies, ample supplies in competing exporting nations and favorable HRW planting conditions in the U.S. Plains. It does appear that most of this bearish news has been factored into prices at this point, though. With large speculators still heavily net short in wheat futures there is room for at least a significant short-covering rally if they start to head for the exits.
Increased tensions between Russia and the West have likely helped boost wheat futures off the new contract lows they made early this week, although futures have shown no huge reaction to the situation. Concerns about a slow winter wheat planting pace in Russia may also be cropping up. Dry weather in western Russian growing areas has limited plantings along with Ukraine’s success in knocking out Russian oil refining capacity, which have led to diesel fuel shortages and higher prices. Russia this week declared a partial diesel export ban thru year-end to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.
Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat yields are nearing historic highs thanks to abundant soil moisture, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, two days after it hiked up its harvest es-timate to 22 MMT. The record for Argentina is 22.4 MMT. The harvest begins in November.
Global food prices dipped in September, with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index falling to 128.8, down nearly 1 point from August, Reuters reported. While the index is up 3.4% from a year ago, it remains 20% below its March 2022 peak. Cereal prices eased slightly: wheat fell for a third straight month on ample harvests and weak demand, while corn and rice also declined. The FAO also raised its grain production outlook for 2025 by 3.8% from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year increase since 2013.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures ended modestly higher. October settled up 21 points to 62.86. December was up 21 points to 65.30, after trading a range of 64.82 to 65.74. March cotton was up 15 points to 67.19.
The market started the week by posting a bearish outside day lower and breaking through what had been strong support around 65.80 in the December contract. The market broke down to another six-month low on Wednesday before rebounding modestly. The contract low for December futures is at 64.24. Continued poor export demand, from China and from other buyers, remains the key negative factor. Harvest pressure will remain a negative factor in the near-term. Pressure on the crude oil market was a negative factor this week.
Rice futures settled higher, gaining 8 to 10 cents. November settled at $11.10 after trading a range of $10.98 to $11.24. January settled at $11.35, and March closed at $11.62 ½.
The month of October got off to a bad start for rice, with November futures falling on Wednesday to a contract low of $10.93, which was also the lowest price for rice in six years. The market has pressure from lackluster demand, burdensome domestic supplies and weak prices globally.
Supplies are also abundant in Asia and there’s no sign of that changing in the near-term. India’s monsoon season has been good and rice prices there are at a three-year low. Reuters notes that Thai prices are at a nine-year low. Nearby futures did rebound after Wednesday’s low, and did not re-test it for the rest of the week. The market, so far, has found little selling interest below $11.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures ended modestly higher. October live cattle settled up 50 cents to $231.025, December was up $1.025 to $234.50, and February was up 88 cents to $236.825. The afternoon Boxed Beef report showed Choice down 95 cents and Select up $1.98.
Plains direct cash cattle markets remained quiet today, although packer bids are reported at $230 on a live basis and $3.60 on a dressed basis in Nebraska. Asking prices run $235-$237 on a live basis in the southern Plains and $362 or more in northern dressed carcass markets. Virtually no negotiated trade has taken place in Kansas yet this week. USDA reports further sales of 2,635 head in Nebraska on Thursday at $230 live and $360 dressed, bringing weekly negotiated sales there to 14,076 head. USDA did not report any trade in Kansas or Texas today.
The avg. beef packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $231.30 per head, down from minus $193.65 on Thursday.
Feeder cattle futures were higher. October settled up $2.875 to $357.175, November was up $3.025 to $355.425, and January feeders were up $2.55 to $349.725.
Lean hog futures settled modestly higher. October lean hogs gained 30 cents to $98.975, December hogs were up 63 cents to $87.30, and February hogs gained 85 cents to $89.30. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was up 95 cents.
The national average negotiated cash carcass value was down 20 cents this afternoon to $98.72. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 47 cents lower at $104.26 and is expected to fall another 56 cents on Friday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 480,000, while the Saturday slaughter is expected to run 146,000 head, up from 132,000 last week.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); long Dec. 2025 $4.70 put options on 10% (2-24-2025); long 1 July 2026 $4.70 put option, short 2 July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25); aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25)
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025); aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); Short May 2026 futures on 10% (8-5-25). 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Aside futures.
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures; long $225 put options against Oct. 2025 live cattle futures on 50% of 4th qtr. marketings (8-8-25).
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 3rd qtr. and 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25, 9-17-25). SOYMEAL: 100% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (3-5-25, 7-3-25, 9-17-25); 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-2025, 9-17-25)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: No sales recommended.
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
