CORN COMMENTS
ADVICE REMINDER: Hedgers should have bought Mar. 2026 corn futures against 10% of expected production to exit the previously advised short hedge position.
Corn futures broke out higher, posting gains of 7 to 7 3/4 cents on support from big new-crop export sales, doubts about USDA’s record U.S. crop estimate and technically-driven short covering. Sharp gains in soybean futures also boosted corn prices. Gains were limited by mostly favorable U.S. crop weather and a stronger dollar. Sep. corn futures rose 7 1/4 cents to $3.87 1/4, while Dec. futures rose 7 3/4 cents to $4.11 3/4 and Mar. futures rose 7 3/4 cents to $4.29 3/4.
Corn futures broke out the top of a 3-day consolidation range and pushed to their highest levels in nearly 3 weeks and posted their highest closes since July 31. Most-active Dec. futures traded as high as $4.13 3/4 before running into resistance near their 40-day moving average. A Dec. breakout above nearby chart resistance at $4.13 3/4-$4.16 would open potential for a further rally to at least $4.24-$4.30. Dec. now has nearby support at $4.03 1/4. It would take a Friday close by Dec. above $4.27 3/4 to put our 5-week Friday close rule long the market, which is unlikely, but next week the market will only need a Friday close above $4.16 to accomplish that.
Corn futures trading volume remained low on Wednesday at less than 330,000 contracts and open interest slipped marginally. Today’s volume was likely stronger, but data won’t be available until Friday morning.
There seems to be growing skepticism about USDA’s August corn yield estimates, especially the record high estimate of 221 bu. per acre for Illinois, but the crop in northern Iowa looked extremely strong with estimated yields reportedly some of the largest on this week’s Midwest crop tour, despite some ear tip-back and disease issues. The final tour yield estimate will be released this evening.
U.S,. corn export sales for 2024-25 to date thru Aug. 14 totaled nearly 2.776 bil. bu., 26% above a year earlier, but still about 44 mil bu. below USDA’s current export forecast of 2.820 bil. bushels. USDA-reported shipments are at 2.476 bil. bu., with only 2-plus weeks left in the marketing year. Old-crop exports appear likely to come up slightly short of USDA’s forecast, but at this point, the market is focusing on new-crop export sales, which continue to pile up at an impressive rate. Advance sales for next marketing year had already reached about 657 mil. bu., as of Aug. 14, up about 110.6% from last year and one of the highest totals on record.
Central Illinois processor spot corn basis bids are steady, ranging from 3 under Sep. futures to 20 over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the U.S. Gulf are fully with Wednesday afternoon. The bid for August delivery is at 80 cents over Sep. futures, with the bid for September delivery at 95 over and the bid for October delivery at 83 over Dec. futures.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures blasted 13 3/4 to 20 cents higher on support from huge gains in soyoil futures, speculative bargain hunting and technically-driven short covering. Dry weather in the lower Midwest and stronger-than-expected weekly export sales also provided fundamental support. Futures rallied despite reports of strong soybean pod counts out of the annual Midwest crop tour, China’s continued absence from the U.S. market and a stronger dollar. Sep. soybeans rose 19 1/2 cents to $10.34 1/2, while Nov. futures rose 20 cents to $10.56 and Jan. rose 18 1/2 cents to $10.73 3/4. Dec. soyoil futures rose 242 points to 53.87 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures fell $3.00 to $294.20.
The short-term chart picture for soybean futures is looking very favorable after today’s strong price action, which took prices to 7-week highs. Most-active Nov. soybeans posted their highest close since June 20. Nearby chart resistance for Nov. is now at $10.58 1/2, but we expect the market will likely now test its 2025 highs at $10.74 1/2-$10.75 3/4.
Key resistance on the weekly most-active soybean futures continuation chart is at $10.80-$10.82. If we consider the recent consolidation area to be a small bull flag, it suggests an upside objective for Nov. beans of about $10.95. Nov. only needs to close above $10.60 3/4 tomorrow to put our 9-week Friday close rule long the market for the first time since June. Nearby chart support for Nov. beans is at $10.32 1/4 and $10.26 3/4.
Soyoil futures posted their strongest day since back in June when EPA came out with its recommendations for biomass diesel blending requirements. Dec. soyoil futures are working on a weekly bullish reversal and appear to have put in another significant low.
Net weekly U.S. soybean export sales for the week ended Aug. 14 were stronger than expected despite net old-crop cancellations. However, while weekly advance sales for 2025-26 were the strongest yet, total advance sales were still historically low for mid-August at 215.1 mil. bu., down 22.4% from a year earlier. The last time new-crop sales were this low in mid-August was in 2019 during the first Trump tariff war with China. Although old-crop exports seem to be on track to reach USDA’s current forecast of 1.875 bil. bu., old-crop export sales are a mere 1 mil. bu. above that target and it would be unprecedented for everything that has been sold for the marketing year to be shipped.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are steady, ranging from 40 cents under Nov. futures to 20 over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the U.S. Gulf are significantly stronger vs. Tuesday afternoon, despite today’s futures strength. The CIF basis bid for August delivery is 8 cents stronger at 45 over Nov. futures, with the bid for September delivery 8 cents stronger at 50 over, while the bid for Oct. delivery is 7 cents stronger at 55 over.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures ended mostly higher, with support from corn and soybeans, while holding above the contract lows set yesterday. Chicago wheat was up ¾ to 1 ½ cents, settling at $5.07 in the September, $5.29 ¾ in the December and $5.47 ¼ in the March. Kansas City wheat was up 2 to 3 cents, settling at $5.03 ¼ in the September, $5.26 in the December and $5.44 ¼ in the March. Minneapolis wheat was down ¾ cent to $5.69 ¼ in the September, but December settled up 1 cent to $5.90 and March settled up 1 cent to $6.09.
A stronger dollar was a negative market factor along with ongoing U.S. spring wheat harvest pressure. While the market did not see much follow-through after Wednesday’s bullish reversal higher, it did hold above the contract lows.
Very little rain is expected in the northern U.S. Plains over the next 10 days, World Weather Inc. says, which will help early harvesting and crop maturation, while cool temperatures limit any concern about increased dryness.
Winter wheat crops remain in good shape in Southern Hemisphere producers Argentina and Australia. Rains that fell in Argentina late last week have left most of the country with strong soil moisture. Meanwhile, although it took most of the winter, Australia’s wheat, barley and canola production areas have finally received enough moisture to support better crop establishment prior to aggressive spring crop development.
Net weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at 17.7 million bushels, which included sales of 19.1 million bushels for 2025-26 and net cancellations of 1.4 million for 2026-27 delivery. Sales were at the low end of trade expectations and down from the previous week’s 26.6 mil. bushels.
U.S. wheat export sales for the marketing year to date thru Aug. 15 totaled 423.5 million bushels, up 23.4% versus a year earlier and still comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s latest 2025-26 export forecast of 875 million bushels. Weekly U.S. wheat export shipments of 13.2 million bushels were up slightly from a week earlier. Shipments for the marketing year to date totaled 168.9 million bushels, up 6.8% versus a year earlier but slightly behind the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s export forecast.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures ended lower, with today’s poor weekly export sales reinforcing the lousy demand situation for the market. Thinly traded October cotton settled down 75 points to 65.89. Most-active December lost 18 points to 67.42, after trading a range of $67.22 to 67.85. March cotton settled down 14 points to 69.10. The December contract has alternated between gains and losses the past five days. It has traded a recent range of 65.88 to 68.50.
After a strong week the prior week, USDA reported net cotton export sales of only 105,400 bales for 2025-26. Vietnam the top buyer at 35,800 bales. China remains absent, and unlike with soybeans, there’s not much of a hope or expectation that they will start buying cotton soon. Weekly cotton shipments totaled 123,300 bales.
Rice futures ended lower and at the day’s lows, while making new contract lows and a five-year low on a front-month basis. September rice settled down 32 cents to $11.73 ½, after trading a range of $11.73 to $12.14 ½. November rice settled down 33 cents to $11.96 and January rice was down 30 cents to $12.28 ½.
Rice net export sales were only 26,900 metric tons. Shipments were better at 63,300 metric tons, with Haiti and Venezuela the top buyers.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures settled narrowly mixed. August live cattle settled up 13 cents to $237.65, October was down 13 cents to $234.73, and December live cattle was down 5 cents to $236.40. The market did take out yesterday’s contract highs. The afternoon Boxed Beef report showed Choice up $2.01 and Select up 44 cents.
Plains direct cash cattle markets are mostly quiet in the southern Plains, but USDA this afternoon reported light/moderate trade in Nebraska at $245 on a live basis, steady with yesterday’s active trade. No packer bids have been posted in the southern Plains, where feedlot asking prices are at $240 or more. Some light Wednesday negotiated trade took place in Kansas at $237. The avg. packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at plus $44.70 per head, down from $53.40 on Wednesday.
Feeder cattle futures were also mixed, although they again made new contract highs and an all-time high on a front-month basis before retreating. Nearby August settled up 60 cents to $356.375, while September was down 8 cents to $358.025. October feeders were up 43 cents to $358.10. Futures remain at a large premium to the CME Feeder Cattle Index, which was up 60 cents to $345.54 as of Tuesday.
Lean hog futures were mostly higher. October settled down 3 cents to $89.925, December was up 13 cents to $83.10, and February lean hogs were up 18 cents to $86.05. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was down 41 cents.
The national average negotiated cash carcass value was down $1.46 to $108.35 this afternoon. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 49 cents lower at $108.57. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 479,000 head, up 6,000 from last week but down 5,000 from last year. The avg. packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $6.20 per head, down from minus $4.45 on Wednesday.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); long 1 Dec. 2025 $4.70 put option, short 2 Dec. $5.40 call options on 10% (2-24-2025); long 1 July 2026 $4.70 put option, short 2 July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25); aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25)
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25); aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); Short May 2026 futures on 10% (8-5-25). 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Short Feb. 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings (8-14-25)’; short June 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (8-14-125).
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures; long $225 put options against Oct. 2025 live cattle futures on 50% of 4th qtr. marketings (8-8-25); long $190 put options against Aug. 2025 live cattle futures on 50% of 3rd qtr. marketings (1-29-25).
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers also remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 25% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25). SOYMEAL: long July soymeal futures on 50% (3-5-25); 50% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (3-5-25, 7-3-25); 25% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-2025)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: No sales recommended.
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
