BROCK MID-SESSION COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Grain and oilseed futures are mostly higher amid short-covering and technical buying. Corn is up 5 to 6 cents and soybeans are up 4 to 5, with both markets seeing some underlying support from ideas that U.S. yields aren’t as good as expected. Wheat is up 2 to 4 cents. Cotton is down slightly, and rice is up 8 to 12 cents.
In outside financial markets, the Dow is down 225 points, and crude oil is down 30 cents. The dollar index is down 0.2%. Gold and silver had made new record highs again.
Weekly ethanol output was steady in the week ended Friday at 1.074 million barrels per day, compared to 1.071 million the prior week. The four-week average is up 1.8% from a year ago. Ethanol stockpiles of 22.6 million barrels was down slightly from 22.7 million the prior week, up up 1.6% from a year ago. Ethanol exports remain somewhat lackluster: EIA reported exports of 108,000 barrels per day on average, down from 138,000 the prior week. The four-week average of 112,000 per day is down from 118,000 per year ago.
Gasoline demand slipped to 8.455 million barrels per day, down from 8.919 million the prior week, while the four-week average is down 3.2% from a year ago. Crude oil stockpiles expanded to 423.8 million barrels, up from 420.3 million the prior week and up 0.8% from a year ago. This follows a stocks built of 3.7 million barrels the prior week. Traders were on average expecting a build of just 288,000 this week.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain high, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday suggested another extension of the current tariff truce remained a possibility if China halts new stricter export controls on rare-earth metals. Bessent also said President Trump still plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping late this month.
Wheat futures have again recovered from overnight weakness, finding support from renewed strength in corn and soybean futures, technically-driven short covering and a weaker dollar.
Dec. SRW wheat futures have charted a 4-session high of $5.02 1/2 so far with the next chart resistance at $5.04 1/4 from the market’s 10-day moving average. Nearby chart support is at $4.95 1/4. Dec. HRW wheat futures are still trading inside of their Wednesday price range as they have so far been stopped by their 10-day moving average. Nearby resistance is at $4.89 1/2-$4.89 3/4, with nearby support at $4.84-$4.84 1/4.
Egypt’s state grains buyer, Future of Egypt, bought two French wheat cargoes on Wednesday, the latest in a series of purchases from France, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters News Service. The cargoes were sold at an estimated price of $240 per MT on a free-on-board basis with payment via 270-day letters of credit, one of the sources said.
As we noted earlier, Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, has reportedly bought about 400,000 MT of durum wheat in its latest import tender, including about 90,000 MT of U.S. durum. The rest of the purchase is believed to consist of Canadian durum.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Livestock futures are mixed at 11:30 a.m. CT with lean hog futures 30 cents to $1.00 lower, while live cattle futures are 10 to 85 cents higher and feeder cattle futures range from $1.23 lower to $1.43 higher. Lean hog futures have been pressured by further weakness in wholesale pork and cash hog prices as well as technically-driven long liquidation. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are finding renewed support from a firm cash market tone amid tightening U.S. cattle supplies and the continued ban on cattle imports from Mexico.
Lean hog futures are near their session lows. Dec. lean hogs, which are now the nearby contract, have traded to a 7-week-plus low of $82.55 with nearby support at $81.83-$82.00 and nearby resistance at $83.60. Feb. lean hog futures have matched their Tuesday low of $85.00 with the next level of support likely to be at $83.65-$84.00, while nearby resistance at $85.90. June lean hogs have traded as low as $99.65, with key support at $99.43 and nearby resistance at $100.13.
The composite pork cutout value was 17 cents higher at midmorning at $102.98. The national avg. negotiated cash carcass price was $3.56 lower at $91.56. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 79 cents lower at $97.20 and is expected to fall another 61 cents on Friday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 489,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 3,000 from last year. Wednesday’s estimated slaughter hit 492,000 head.
Most-active Dec. live cattle have traded to a new contract high of $248.30, with nearby support now at $246.23. Feb. live cattle have charted a new contract high of $250.18 with nearby support now at $248.23. Most-active Nov. feeder cattle futures have not yet gone to a new contract high, but have traded within 30 cents of their Tuesday high of $382.80 and now have nearby chart support at $379.10 and $378.05.
Plains direct cash cattle markets remain quiet this morning, but some packer bids have emerged in Nebraska at $240 on a live basis, $5-$6 higher than last week’s market, and $370 on a dressed carcass basis $8 higher than last week’s market. No packer bids are reported in the southern Plains, with feedlots asking $240 or more for live cattle. Right now it doesn’t look like significant trade will develop before Friday.
Beef cutout values were ranged from $1.00 lower to 11cents higher at midmorning with the choice cutout value at $365.48. The avg. packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $175.35 per head, up from minus $197.95 on Wednesday.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); long Dec. 2025 $4.70 put options on 10% (2-24-2025); long 1 July 2026 $4.70 put option, short 2 July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25); aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25)
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025); aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); Short May 2026 futures on 10% (8-5-25). 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Short Feb. 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings (10-9-25); Short June 2026 lean hog futures against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (10-9-25)
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures; long $230 put options on Dec. 2025 futures against 25% of 4th qtr. marketing (10-9-25).
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 3rd qtr. and 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25, 9-17-25). SOYMEAL: 100% of 3rd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (3-5-25, 7-3-25, 9-17-25); 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-2025, 9-17-25)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: No sales recommended.
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
NOTE: Along with the potential for profit, there is always a risk of losing money when trading futures and options contracts.
Copyright 2025 by Richard A. Brock & Associates, Inc.
Any unauthorized redistribution or reproduction of this commentary is strictly forbidden.
