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COT Chart Dump – Corn, Beans, SB Meal & Wheat

The lack of any weather issues or bullish news over the past several weeks has lead to large speculators resuming their selling of corn, soybeans and wheat. Index funds also liquidated much of their long positions as July contracts approached expiration, and they do not appear interested in re-entering via deferred contracts. The Commitment of Traders charts below show positions through the week ended June 25.

As the bar charts below show, much of the increase in the net short was large speculators adding new short positions, not long liquidation, which in our eyes is a bit more bearish. There was likely significant additional selling Wednesday-Friday of last week, and our hope is that is the end of it but frankly there is no real reason to think that it is. Traders are approaching their recent and all time largest net short position set just a few months ago in corn and beans. Maybe they are running out of dry powder to short the market, or perhaps they will continue to push these markets into new lows.

Of note, large specs have not been selling the meal market. Our concern is that this market setup is similar to what we see precede major sell offs. Meal buyers should be patient and stay hand to mouth for the time being.

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