CORN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Corn futures posted gains ranging from 1 3/4 to 2 3/4 cents on support from pre-USDA position evening and strength in soybean and wheat futures. Expectations for USDA to lower its U.S. production estimate and raise projected exports on Monday likely spurred short covering. Gains were limited by large U.S. supplies, a firm dollar and crude oil futures weakness. Mar. futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.46 3/4, while May futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.54 and July rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.59 3/4.
Corn futures continue to chop around in the sideways trading patterns they have occupied since late October, but closed near their session highs and posted their highest closes in 7 sessions today, which is technically encouraging. Key chart resistance for nearby Mar. futures remains at $4.53-$4.57, but if the market can trade above $4.51 Thursday or Friday, it would likely chart an outside week up, which could set the stage for a breakout above that resistance and a move to at least $4.70.
Fundamentally, the corn market remains a tug-of-war between record large supplies and record high demand as we head into Monday’s reports, which are expected to show a modest cut in the 2025 crop size and the 2025-26 U.S. corn carryout. It remains to be seen whether such a cut will be enough to move corn prices much higher. A larger crop estimate would likely be bearish for prices, but might not push futures below their recent lows.
Pre-report trade estimates of 2025 corn production avg. 16.554 bil. bu., 198 mil. bu. below USDA’s November estimate, in a range from 16.353-16.752 bil., according to a Bloomberg survey of 27 analysts. Expectations for the U.S. yield avg. 184 bu. per acre in a range from 182-186 bu. compared with USDA’s November estimate of 186.0 bushels.
Pre-report estimates of Dec. 1 corn stocks avg. 12.981 bil. bu. in a range from 11.928-13.369 bil., which would be up 8.4% vs. a year earlier, and would be a record high, surpassing the previous high of 12.567 bil. bu. set in December 2017. Trade estimates of 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks avg. 1.986 bil. bu., down 43 mil. from USDA’s December estimate, in a range from 1.772-2.235 billion.
Central Illinois spot processor basis bids are steady, ranging from 13 cents under Mar. futures 8 over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the U.S. Gulf are steady to stronger vs. Tuesday afternoon. The CIF bid for January delivery is 3 cents stronger at 83 over Mar. futures, with the bid for February delivery 2 cents stronger at 86 over, while the bid for March delivery is steady at 84 over.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures rebounded from Tuesday’s bout of weakness to post gains ranging from 7 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents on support from pre-USDA report position evening, slow farmer selling and improved Chinese demand. Prospects for U.S. soybean acres to remain low this year likely also lent support along with soymeal price strength. Gains were capped by strong crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina. Mar. soybeans rose 10 3/4 cents to $10.67 1/4, while May rose 10 3/4 cents to $10.78 3/4 and July rose 10 3/4 cents to $10.90 1/4. Mar. soyoil futures fell 9 points to 49.31 cents, while Mar. soymeal futures rose $5.90 to $305.40.
The soybean futures chart picture is looking improved this afternoon. The 2025-crop futures traded to 6-session highs and posted their highest closes in 7 sessions. Odds are good that prices have now put in another significant low, but futures will have to take out their late December swing highs to open significant upside from a technical standpoint. Mar. soybeans now have nearby chart resistance at $10.70 1/2 and still need to close above $10.82 1/2 to confirm a low. Mar. has nearby support at $10.55 1/2-$10.56 1/2 and at $10.38.
USDA is expected to lower its 2025 production estimate in Monday’s annual Crop Summary report, but only modestly. Pre-report trade estimates of 2025 production avg. 4.233 bil. bu. 20 mil. below USDA’s November estimate in a range from 4.176-4.300 bil. bushels, according to the Bloomberg survey. Expectations for the U.S. soybean yield avg. 52.7 bu. per acre in a range from 51.9-53.5 bu. compared with USDA’s November estimate of 53.0 bushels.
Ahead of USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, trade estimates of Dec. 1 soybean stocks avg. 3.259 bil. bu. in a range from 2.950-3.445 billion. A the trade avg. Dec. 1 soybean stocks would be 159 bu. or 5.1% larger than a year earlier and the largest in 7 years, since 2019-20 during the first Trump trade war with China. Very slow September-November soybean exports are the main reason for the high stocks. The good news is that U.S. exports appear set to pick up counter-seasonally.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are steady, ranging from 10 cents under Mar. futures to 5 cents over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the U.S. Gulf are mostly stronger vs. Tuesday afternoon. The CIF basis bid for January delivery is at 90 cents over Mar. futures compared with 100 over Jan. futures on Tuesday, while the bid for February delivery 4 cents stronger at 92 over and the bid for March delivery is 4 cents stronger at 90 over.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures rallied to their highest level in more than a week, with support from the rally in soybeans and renewed speculative short-covering. Chicago settled up 5 to 7 cents, at $5.18 in the March, $5.28 in the May and $5.39 1/4 in the July. Kansas City wheat rallied 10 cents, to $5.31 1/2 in the March, $5.43 1/4 in the May and $5.56 in the July. Minneapolis wheat was up 3 to 4 cents, to $5.70 1/2 in the March, $5.81 in the May and $5.93 1/4 in the July.
Technically the market has some upside momentum and looks ready to take a run at their highs from around Christmas, at $5.25 in the March Chicagoc contract and $5.36 in March K.C. futures. Minneapolis wheat remains in more of a sideways pattern between $5.60 and $5.90, with the Dec. 24 high at $5.82 3/4.
Hard red winter wheat futures have had additional support from concerns about dryness in the Plains. Rain and snow are expected through Friday, offering the best precipitation coverage since late November, but totals will be modest and insufficient to materially improve spring soil moisture prospects. Some livestock stress is possible with cold rain and snow in parts of the central and southern Plains. Drier, warmer conditions are expected to return quickly next week, with limited precipitation likely through mid-January. Colder weather may develop again in the second half of the month, but meaningful moisture remains lacking.
Traders are looking ahead to Monday’s USDA reports, and survey estimates are out this afternoon. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey on average see Dec. 1 wheat stocks coming in at 1.637 billion bushels, up from 1.573 billion a year ago. Estimates range from 1.573 to 1.738 billion, and our estimate is 1.664 billion. The 2025-26 carryout is seen on average at 896 million bushels, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 901 million. Winter wheat seedings are seen on average at 32.4 million acres, compared to 33.2 million last year. Both hard red and soft red acreage is seen lower. Our own estimate is 32.5 million.
A monthly crop progress and condition update released on Tuesday pegged Kansas winter wheat conditions at 60% good/excellent as of Jan. 4, down from the previous rating of 70% good/ex. as of Dec. 7. Colorado winter wheat conditions were rated 43% good/ex., down from a Nov. 23 rating of 69%. In Nebraska, winter wheat conditions were rated 40% good/ex., down from 54% good/excellent on Nov. 23. S. Dakota winter wheat conditions were rated 37% good/ex., down from 43% on Nov. 23. Montana winter wheat conditions were rated 26% good, up from just 10% good/ex. on Nov. 23.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures ran out of steam, retreating after trading higher for much of the session and ending near the day’s lows. March cotton settled down 21 points to 64.85, after trading a range of 64.80 to 65.62. May cotton was down 16 points to 66.27, and July was down 13 points to 67.61.
The market traded within Tuesday’s range and did not challenge yesterday’s two-month high of 65.76. The 40-day moving average, currently at 64.22, and the 18-day moving average at 64.08 could be potential support on further losses. Weakness in the crude oil market is a negative factor, while the prospect of reduced acreage this spring should limit further downside.
Rice futures ended higher in a relatively quiet day of consolidation after surging the prior two days. January rice settled up 4 cents to $10.11. Most-active March rice was up 3 ½ cents to $10.39 ½, after trading a range of $10.26 ½ to $10.49 ½. May rice was up 4 cents to $10.67 ½.
March futures posted an inside day on the chart, not challenging yesterday’s high of $10.58 ½. We do think this market has finally established a bottom, with underpinning from firming prices in Asia and uncertainty about spring acreage in the U.S. A Bloomberg story out today highlights the challenges of growers dealing with high costs and low prices, and includes speculation that acreage could be down sharply this year.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
LEAN HOG FUTURES wound up anywhere from 5 cent to $1.30 lower under pressure from weaker cash markets and technically-driven speculative profit taking. Feb. lean hogs fell 88 cents to $84.80, while June futures fell 75 cents to $103.53. Oct. futures failed to chart a new contract high for first time in 9 sessions.
Feb lean hog futures posted their lowest close in 3 sessions, but held at their 18-day moving average. A Feb. close below $84.28 would constitute a 5-wave sell signal and a breakout below chart support at $83.83-$83.93 would likely add to the downward technical pressure on the market. Key nearby chart resistance for Feb. remains at $86.50. June futures posted their lowest close in 3 sessions, but will have to close below $102.40 to chart a 5-wave sell signal, which would likely cause us to reestablish hedge protection. June has nearby chart resistance at $104.48-$104.55.
The composite pork cutout value rose $1.04 today to $92.29. However, the national avg. negotiated cash carcass price at midafternoon was $3.75 lower at $72.61. The weighted avg. price for hogs sold under swine/pork market formula agreements was $80.29, down from $81.21 on Tuesday. Today’s estimated slaughter ran 496,000 head, up 76,000 vs. last week and 11,000 vs. last year. Monday-Wednesday slaughter of 1.489 mil. head was up 4.9% vs. last year.
LIVE CATTLE FUTURES finished $1.75 to $2.20 lower under pressure from speculative profit taking on long positions amid a continued lack of cash market activity. Sharply negative packer operating margins helped spur demand concerns. Feb. live cattle fell $2.10 to $234.53, while April live cattle fell $2.20 to $235.18.
FEEDER CATTLE FUTURES sold off along with live cattle under pressure from technically-driven speculative profit taking and corn price strength. Most-active Mar. feeder cattle fell $3.53 to $355.50.
Feb. live cattle futures posted their lowest close in 4 sessions but it is too early to say that they have put in a significant price high. Feb. has nearby chart support at $233.80. A Feb. close back below $232.30 would be technically concerning. Feb. will likely have significant support in the $227.00-$227.50 area on further near-term weakness. Key nearby resistance is at $237.45. Most-active Mar. feeder cattle futures remain on strong technical ground and now have nearby chart support at $353.90, with nearby resistance at $358.75-$359.40.
Plains direct cash cattle markets remained quiet today, although scattered packer bids emerged in Kansas at $232 on a live basis. Southern Plains feedlots, however, are asking $235-$237. No trade had occurred today as of midafternoon and it appears it will be Thursday or Friday before significant sales activity develops. USDA did report Tuesday negotiated sales of 489 head in Kansas at $232. Beef cutout values wound up anywhere from $180 lower to $3.03 higher, with the choice cutout rising to $354.28.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); aside futures; short July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25);. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Long January $81 put options on Feb. 2026 lean hog futures (12-17-25), short $108 call options against June 2026 lean hog futures (1-2-26). Aside futures.
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures and options.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: No forward cash purchases advised. SOYMEAL: 100% of 1st qtr. needs bought in the cash market; 50% of 2nd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (1-7-26).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25). Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
