Grain and soybean futures were narrowly mixed at the end of another dull early trading session, with soybean futures continuing to edge higher on support from technically-driven short covering, slow farmer selling and hopes for a resumption of Chinese buying. Corn futures chopped on both sides of unchanged overnight amid harvest pressure and an absence of demand news, while wheat futures dropped back near their recent 5-yr. lows under pressure from ample world supplies and a strong dollar. Cotton futures were also pressured further by the dollar’s strength, despite support from crude oil gains.
Corn futures mostly range from steady to 1 cent higher at the end of early trade, with soybean futures mostly 1/4 cent to 3 1/2 cents higher and wheat futures 1 cent lower to 1/4 cent higher. Cotton futures are 24 to 29 points lower.
In other markets, U.S. crude oil futures are 29 to 43 cents higher but have faded off 5-session highs amid indications of larger U.S. crude stocks and a stronger dollar. American Petroleum Institute data indicated a larger-than-expected weekly build of 2.78 mil. barrels in U.S. crude stocks, but showed drawdowns in gasoline and distillate stocks.
The dollar index is higher for a third straight day after reaching a nearly 2-month high overnight on support from continued weakness in the Euro and the Japanese yen spurred by political turmoil in France and Japan’s leadership change. The index has faded off that high, though. Dec. gold futures are $63.50 higher and have charted another new all-time high of $4,071.50 on continued support from geopolitical turmoil.
U.S. stock indexes are set to open slightly higher, based on index futures trade. Index futures have so far shown no follow-through to Tuesday’s weakness, in which the S&P 500 index snapped a 7-session string of gains as investors took profits in tech stocks. Trade may be cautious ahead of this afternoon’s release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, which should provide more insight into prospects for further Fed interest rate cuts.
The U.S. government shutdown is entering its 8th day, with no deal to provide needed funding in sight, leaving agricultural and financial markets without access to key fundamental data. Investors this morning will be watching the U.S. Energy Administration’s weekly Petroleum Status report, which is continuing to be published.
Corn futures traded again ranges of 2 3/4 cents or less overnight but finished above midrange for the early session, talk of lower U.S. yields likely underpinning prices along with strength in soybean and crude oil futures. Dec. futures now have nearby chart support at $4.18 1/2 and $4.17 1/4, with nearby resistance at $4.24 1/2. A Dec. close above $4.24 1/2 could set up another test of chart gap resistance at $4.31 1/4-$4.32 3/4.
Soybean futures traded narrow ranges of 6 3/4 cents or less overnight, but continued to buck harvest pressure, rising to 3-session highs and ending early trade near those highs. Nov. soybeans have nearby chart resistance at $10.28 3/4, with nearby support now at $10.20 and $10.14-$10.16.
There is little fresh fundamental news to drive corn and soybean price direction. Traders should continue to focus on harvest results and cash market trade, while keeping an eye out for any fresh news on U.S.-China trade talks and a potential federal aid package for farmers that is expected to be announced sometime this week.
Ideas the U.S. corn yield will fall below USDA’s current estimate of 186.7 bu. per acre, resulting in slightly lower crop production, should remain supportive for corn futures, with trade estimates of the U.S. yield averaging 185.0 bu. per acre, according to a Bloomberg survey. However, the market is still faced with the task of absorbing a record large U.S. crop and that will limit any upside for prices this fall.
Expectations for U.S. soybean production to fall short of USDA’s current estimate may continue to underpin soybean futures along with slow producer selling and hopes the scheduled meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi in late October will result in a deal for China to buy U.S. soybeans.
The harvest weather forecast is looking a bit more unsettled. Tuesday’s midday GFS weather model showed the remnants of a new tropical storm system expected to form near southern Mexico impacting an area from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Wisconsin Sunday into next Tuesday with heavy rain. Tuesday evening’s GFS model run forecast the swath of rain would instead occur from southwestern Nebraska through Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Confidence in where the remnants of the system go is low at this point.
Brazilian soybean exports remain strong on heavy Chinese demand, with China continuing to shun U.S. soybeans. Brazilian grain export group ANEC expects October soybean exports to hit 7.1 MMT, up 60% from October 2024 exports of 4.44 MMT. Brazil’s October corn exports are expected to run 6.1 MMT up from 5.67 MMT in October 2024.
Wheat futures chopped around in very narrow ranges of 4 cents or less overnight after ending Tuesday’s session just above the roughly 5-month lows they charted on Oct. 1. Futures fell to 5-session lows overnight, but rebounded to finish early trade near their session highs. Nearby Dec. SRW wheat futures now have chart support at $5.03 3/4 and their contract low of $5.02, while Dec. HRW wheat futures have support at $4.88-$4.89.
Ample U.S. wheat supplies continue to limit buying interest in wheat futures. Trade estimates of 2025-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks avg. 880 mil. bu. in a range from 820-905 mil. bu. compared with USDA’s September estimate of 844 mil. after USDA revised its 2025 U.S. crop estimate upward and reported larger-than-expected Sept. 1 wheat stocks.
World wheat supplies are also seen as ample to meet demand, with larger supplies estimated in most major exporting nations. Trade estimates of world ending stocks avg. 265.9 MMT in a range from 264.5-270.0 MMT compared with USDA’s September estimate of 264.1 MMT.
The demand side of the world wheat market has quieted down again, with few significant tenders reported. Jordan has issued a new import tender for up to 120,000 MT of optional milling wheat.
Nearby Dec. cotton futures charted a new contract low of 64.16 cents overnight amid continued demand worries. A Dec. close below 64.24 would open the door for a test of the 2025 low on the weekly most-active cotton futures continuation chart at 60.80 cents.
Livestock futures may open mixed this morning with live cattle and feeder cattle futures likely to find further early support from technically-driven buying after another strong close on Wednesday. A continued lack of Plains cash trade so far this week may limit further buying in futures. Most-active Dec. live cattle futures have now gone nearly $4 premium to last week’s featured southern Plains cash price. Lean hog futures may feel further pressure from technically-driven long liquidation and cash market weakness after the composite pork cutout value fell $1.32 on Tuesday and the national avg. cash carcass value was 76 cents lower at midafternoon.
