GRAIN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Grain and oilseed futures steady to mostly lower at midday. Corn is down 1 to 2 cents while soybeans are flat, with downside limited by fresh export sales announced this morning including the first sale to China in 8 days. Wheat is down 1 to 4 cents despite continued hostilities in the Black Sea region. Cotton is up 10 to 15 points, and rice is flat.
In outside markets, precious metals have gained back a chunk of the ground lost yesterday when they plunged after making new all-time highs. Gold is up $40 this morning. The dollar index is up slightly, and the major stock market indexes are mixed.
Brazil’s soybean harvest has begun in limited areas, with the first combines rolling in parts of Mato Grosso, according to Brazilian agribusiness outlet Notícias Agrícolas. While activity is still in its very early stages, initial harvest reports cited by the publication indicate early yields and grain quality are coming in at encouraging levels.
At the moment there is nothing in the forecast to indicate that the strong crop outlook will change. Brazil’s main crop areas will see an active weather pattern this week, with frequent scattered rain through Friday before precipitation expands into center-south, center-west, and northeastern regions over the weekend, World Weather Inc. said. Most areas should receive 1 to 4 inches of rain by early next week, supporting soybeans and first-season corn, though fieldwork may slow at times. Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal, with seasonal conditions expected to persist into mid-January. Limited rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures in east-central and northeastern Brazil last week led to some drying, which actually helped firm soils after earlier excessive moisture, World Weather said.
The Brazilian trade group ANEC projected today that soybean exports for December would total 3.02 MMT, down from a prior projection of 3.57 MMT. Soybean meal exports were also lowered, to 1.87 MMT from 2.0 MMT previously. The corn export estimate for Brazil was kept unchanged at 6.35 MMT.
After bouncing slightly higher overnight on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, wheat futures have turned lower again along with corn and soybean futures under renewed pressure from large world supplies. The market has shown little reaction to a report this morning from Ukraine’s navy that Russian drones struck two civilian vessels entering a Ukrainian Black Sea port to load wheat.
Mar. SRW wheat futures have dipped to a 5-session low of $5.10 1/2 after establishing nearby chart resistance at $5.15 1/2. Contract low support is at $5.04. Mar. HRW wheat futures have traded to a 4-session low of $5.22 and are against their 18-day moving avg. after establishing nearby chart resistance overnight at $5.29 1/2.
Stiff export market competition remains a negative market factor, especially with the holiday season limiting demand. Russian wheat export prices were steady to slightly weaker last week. The price for 12.5% protein Russian wheat for free-on-board delivery at the start of February was $226 per MT at the end of last week, down $1 from a week earlier, according to IKAR consultancy, while SovEcon consultancy said prices were steady at $228-$230 per MT.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Livestock futures are steady to higher across the board at 11:20 a.m. CT, with lean hog futures ranging from 10 cents to $1.05 higher, while live cattle futures are $1.73 to $2.15 higher and feeder cattle futures are $2.53 to $3.10 higher. Lean hog futures are stronger despite weaker cash markets. Live cattle futures have found renewed support from a firm cash market tone despite weakening choice beef prices and sharply negative packer margins. Feeder cattle futures have been boosted by Monday’s $6.68 rise in the CME cash feeder cattle index to $356.00.
Nearby Feb. lean hog futures have traded to a 3-session high of $85.60 after establishing nearby chart support at $84.43. Further support is at $83.83. Key chart resistance for Feb. remains up at $86.23-$86.70. June lean hogs have traded to a nearly 3-month high of $103.00, pushing just above their Monday high. The next resistance is at $103.48 and the contract high of $104.08. June has nearby support at $102.25 and further support at $101.55-$101.90.
The composite pork cutout value was 41 cents lower at midmorning at $95.55. USDA again did not report midmorning carcass values due to packer confidentiality reasons, but the weighed avg. price for hogs sold under swine/pork market formula agreements was $82.02, down 99 cents from midmorning on Monday. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is $1.40 lower at $82.44 and is expected to fall another 19 cents on Wednesday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 491,000 head, up 4,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year.
Feb. live cattle futures have shown no real follow-through to the outside day down they charted on Monday. They have established nearby chart support at $228.43. Nearby resistance is up at Monday’s high of $231.00, which they are testing. April live cattle have pushed to a 4-session high of $231.50 after bouncing off their 18-day moving avg. and have nearby resistance at $231.70 and nearby chart support at $228.80-$229.00. Mar. feeder cattle futures have hit a new 2-month-plus high of $345.05, filling the large downward gap on their daily chart left on Oct. 27 but have since backed off a bit. A close above $345.05 would look technically bullish. Nearby chart support for Mar. feeders is now at $341.15 and Monday’s low of $338.88.
Plains direct cash cattle markets remain quiet this morning, with packer bids and feedlot asking prices still not established. Significant trade may not develop before Wednesday or Friday. Higher prices are still favored with packers buying for a full slaughter schedule next week, but there are more cattle on showlists than last week. Beef cutout values ranged from ranged from $82 cents lower to 6 cents higher at midmorning, with the choice cutout value at $348.51. The choice cutout sank below $350 on Monday for the first time since mid-May. The avg. beef packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $254.85 per head, down from minus $235.00 on Monday and minus $141.30 a week ago.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); aside futures; short July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025, 11-4-25, 12-1-25); short Jan. 2026 soybean futures against 10% (12-1-25), long Jan. 2026 $10.50 call options against 10% (12-19-25).
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25);. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Long January $81 put options on Feb. 2026 lean hog futures (12-17-25). Aside futures.
LIVE CATTLE: Short Feb. 2026 live cattle futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings (12-23-25); Long January $227 put options against Feb. 2026 live cattle futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder sellers are aside futures). Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (5-6-25, 9-17-25). SOYMEAL: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in the cash market (7-3-25, 9-17-25)
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25. Short Mar. 2026 cotton futures on 20% of 2025 production (12-16-25).
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
