Grain and soybean futures are narrowly mixed at the end of a dull overnight trading session. Corn and soybean futures showed limited movement overnight and failed to find any upward momentum with strong S. American crop prospects and a strong dollar stifling buying interest. Wheat futures, however, found further support from Ukraine-Russia tensions and are trying to move higher for a fifth straight session. Improved U.S. export sales have also supported wheat prices. Cotton prices have also found support from stronger weekly export sales.
Corn futures were 1/4 cent to 1 cent lower at the end of early trading, with soybean futures mostly 1 1/4 cents lower to 1/2 cent higher, while wheat futures mostly ranged from 2 to 4 1/4 cents higher. Cotton futures mostly range from 6 to 7 points higher.
Looking at other markets, U.S. crude oil futures are $1.19 to $.32 higher on concerns about escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war as the two sides exchange missile attacks. The dollar index is little changed. December gold futures are $17.50 higher on continued support the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Bitcoin has surged above $97,000.
Based on index futures trade, U.S. stock indexes are set to open moderately higher with a strong earnings report from leading AI chipmaker Nvidia setting a positive market tone. Asian stock indexes were mostly lower in Thursday trade. Major European stock indexes are mostly higher in afternoon trade.
U.S. weekly unemployment claims came in at 213,000, compared with trade estimates that averaged 220,000 and the previous week’s revised 219,000.
Investors this morning will be watching data on U.S. existing home sales for October, with sales expected on avg. to be up 2.9% from September. Also due out are the leading economic indicators for October, with the leading index expected on avg. to be down 0.4% from September.
Corn futures again showed limited movement in overnight trading, charting price ranges of 3 1/4 cents or less. Futures ended near their session lows after failing to find fresh buyers on a move above nearby resistance at their Wednesday highs. Dec. corn failed at its Wednesday high of $4.32 and finished early trade at $4.29 1/2.
The price action in soybean futures remains concerning as futures traded inside of their Wednesday ranges overnight and finished early trading near their session lows and just above key chart support. Jan. soybeans now have nearby chart resistance at $9.98 3/4-$10.01 1/2, with nearby support at $9.85 1/4-$9.88.
Net U.S. corn export sales for the week ended Nov 14 came in at 58.8 mil. bu. compared with trade expectations that ran 51.0-86.5 mil. bu. and the previous week’s 51.8 million. The sales total, which is toward the lower end of the range of expectation looks a bit disappointing.
Net weekly U.S. soybean export sales came in at 68.4 mil. bu. compared with trade estimates that ran 36.5-70 mil. bu. and the previous week’s 57.2 million. The soybean sales total looks supportive for soybean prices, but may not be enough to support them against continued pressure from S. American production prospects and fears of a new U.S.-China tariff war.
Soybean futures should find further support this morning from USDA announcements that exporters have sold another 198,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China for 2024-25 delivery along with 135,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024-25 delivery and 133,000 MT of U.S. cake and soymeal to the Philippines for 2024-25.
Net weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at 20.2 mil. bu. compared with trade estimates that ran 10.0-22.0 mil. bu. and the previous week’s sales of 14.0 mil. bushels. The sales total looks supportive for wheat prices.
In other export news, S. Korea’s MFG reportedly bought 65,000-70,000 MT of corn in a private deal, with the purchase expected to be sourced from either the U.S. or S. America. Meanwhile, S. Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. reportedly bought about 66,000 MT of corn in a separate private deal, with the corn also expected to be sourced from either the U.S. or S. America.
South America weather continues to look favorable for most crops, despite a few pockets of drier biased weather. In Brazil, conditions through the first seven days of the outlook will likely be particularly drier-biased in Sao Paulo state and northeastern Parana. However, some needed, timely rainfall is expected there later next week, after next Wednesday.
Wheat futures are working on posting gains for a fifth straight session on support from worries about Black Sea grain trade and improved weekly U.S. export sales. Nearby Dec. SRW wheat futures overnight traded as high as $5.57 1/2 with nearby resistance at $5.58 3/4. Nearby support for Dec. SRW wheat is now at $5.51 1/2.
Ukraine’s air force said Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine in an attack on the city of Dnipro on Thursday. If confirmed, the use of a weapon designed to delivery long-range nuclear strikes would represent a further escalation of the war in Ukraine. Ukraine’s long-range missile attacks against targets inside of Russia this week have wheat traders fearing disruptions to Black Sea exports, but there still have not been any actual disruptions to trade.
As expected, flour millers in Taiwan bought an estimated 80,000 MT of U.S. wheat in an import tender that closed overnight. The purchase involved two 40,000 ton consignments for shipment in 2025 from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.
Ukraine and western portions of Russia’s Southern Region are still in line to receive needed moisture in the coming five days offering some improved soil moisture. Winter crops are dormant or semi-dormant now and unlikely to benefit from the moisture until warmer weather returns in the spring.
Weather in Australia is mostly favorable, although some winter wheat harvest delays are possible in Victoria and South Australia next week as rain increases.
Winter wheat seedings for 2025 harvest in the United Kingdom are expected to rise 5.4% over last year to 1.613 mil. hectares (3.99 mil. acres) but are still expected to be below the 2019-2023 average.
Net U.S. Cotton export sales for the week ended Nov 14 totaled 318,000 running bales (RB) for 2024-25 delivery and 16,000 RB for 2025-26 compared with the previous week’s sales of 153,500 RB for 2024-25 delivery and 1,000 for 2025-26. The sales total is easily the largest of the marketing year to date and should be supportive for prices. Vietnam was the major buyer on the week, purchasing 141,600 RB.
Livestock futures may open mixed this morning with lean hog futures likely to be boosted by technically-driven buying and Wednesday’s firmer cash hog price tone. Wednesday morning wholesale pork market gains, however, were not held, which may weigh on futures. Live cattle futures trade may be choppy and directionless today amid a continued lack of Plains cash trade and position evening ahead of Friday’s USDA Cattle-on-Feed report. Wednesday declines of 92 cents to $2.40 in beef cutout values will be a negative market factor. Feeder cattle futures may be supported by Wednesday’s further 58-cent rise in the CME cash feeder cattle index to $254.26.
