Grain and soybean futures mostly managed small gains in cautious early trading, but corn futures have slipped into the red amid harvest pressure since reopening. A strong dollar has been a negative market factor as well, but soybean futures have managed modest gains on renewed short covering and wheat futures have also edged higher on short covering. Cotton futures are slightly higher despite the strong dollar.
Corn futures are mostly steady to 3/4 of a cent lower at 8:40 a.m., with soybean future 3 to 3 1/2 cents higher and wheat futures 1/4 cent to 2 cents higher. Cotton futures are 12 to 15 points higher.
Looking at other markets, U.S. crude oil futures are 41 to 42 cents higher after OPEC-plus members hiked production less than expected at their weekend meeting. A soft demand outlook has limited gains, with refinery maintenance expected to limit oil demand during the 4th qtr. of 2025.
The dollar index is more than 0.5 points higher at a 6-session high, although it has slipped off its overnight high. The dollar’s strength is due to primarily to a plunge in the yen after Japan elected its first-ever female prime minister over the weekend, who is expected to loosen monetary policy and fiscal spending constraints. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen to a 6-session low against the dollar after France’s latest prime minister abruptly resigned after less than a month in office. The political shakeups helped send Dec. gold futures to another new all-time high of $3,973.70. Dec. gold is currently $52.50 higher.
U.S. stock indexes are mostly higher again despite the govt. shutdown, with AI stocks again leading the way. The stop of top AI firm AMD Inc. is up nearly 30%. Japan’s Nikkei index soared nearly 5% in Monday trading, while many other Asian markets were closed for holidays. European markets are mostly higher in afternoon trade.
There are no important U.S. economic reports due out today. With the government still closed, many reports will remain suspended. The Fed will release minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, which will provide fresh info on the probability of further interest rate cuts.
Corn futures gains were eroded late in early trade by harvest pressure. Futures traded narrow ranges of 2 3/4 cents or less overnight amid a lack of significant fundamental news. Dec. futures ended early trade near midrange after establishing nearby resistance at $4.20 1/4 and nearby support at $4.17 3/4.
Soybean futures initially fell on Sunday evening, they firmed overnight on renewed short covering, before fading late in early trade and ending the session near midrange. Nov. soybeans established nearby chart support at $10.14 and nearby resistance at $10.23 1/4, where their 18-day moving avg. sits.
This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report is cancelled due to the govt. shutdown and it seems highly unlikely USDA’s monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports will be released on Thursday as schedule, even it the govt. shutdown ends before then.
After a week of mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, we suspect harvest was 30% or more complete as of Sunday, compared with last year’s pace of 30% complete as of Oct. 6. Soybean harvest may have already reached 39-40% complete, still behind last year’s pace of 47% as of Oct. 6.
Today’s forecast is wetter for parts of the Midwest than what was advertised late last week and moderate to heavy rain will impact areas near and south of the Ohio River today into Tuesday and likely some areas from the southwestern Corn Belt to the Great Lakes region Oct. 14-17. Fieldwork will be interrupted in these areas, but the soil is dry enough to absorb the rain without becoming saturated or excessively muddy and delays to farming activity should be temporary, World Weather Inc. says.
Planting of Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop accelerated rapidly last week, with Brazilian analyst AgRural estimating nationwide planting progress at 9% as of last Thursday, the second fastest pace on record for the date and ahead of last year’s pace of 4%. Planting of first-crop corn reached 40% complete in the center-south growing region, vs. 37% last year, AgRural estimated.
Brazil rainfall is expected to be wettest in the south during this first week of the outlook Center west and northern parts of center south will start receiving rain this weekend and continue next week improving early season soybean and first season corn planting prospects.
Wheat futures traded ranges of 5 1/2 cents or less overnight and finished early trade near their session highs on apparent support from short covering driven by technical strength and uncertainty about market fundamentals due to the absence of USDA reports on exports and crop progress. Nearby Dec. SRW wheat futures have nearby chart support at $5.12 1/4 and nearby resistance at $5.18 1/2. The market’s 40-day moving avg. is further potential resistance at $5.23 1/4.
Although we won’t see updated data today, we suspect winter wheat seeding advanced rapidly in the Plains last week. U.S. winter wheat may have reached 50% complete or more as of Sunday.
This week is expected to bring some fresh rains across central and eastern Kansas, which should be beneficial for newly planted winter wheat there, but may slow seeding activity. The forecast is largely dry through Friday, though from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma, western Kansas and western Nebraska, which favors continued fast seeding progress.
Saudi Arabia bought 455,000 MT of wheat in an international tender for shipment in December and January, the country’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Monday. The average price paid for the wheat was $263.38 per MT, cost and freight (C&F) included, GFSA’s CEO Ahmad Al-Fares said in a statement.
Low global prices for grains, Russia’s main agricultural commodity, have caused a sharp fall in exports in recent months, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees agriculture, reportedly told President Vladimir Putin on Monday. Russia’s August wheat exports were down about 30% from last year, with September exports down about 10%, according to data compiled by Sovecon consultancy, despite forecasts pointing to a good harvest this year.
