The next quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report due out on March 31 should highlight the dichotomy between big U.S. corn supplies and record strong demand, while also making clear the fact U.S. soybean and wheat supplies remain ample to meet demand. We expect USDA to peg March 1 U.S. corn stocks at the highest level in more than 10 years despite record high December-February corn disappearance. USDA is also likely to peg March 1 soybean stocks at a six-year high, and March 1 wheat stocks at a five-year high.
Looking at corn stocks first, we estimate March 1 corn stocks totaled 9.065 billion bushels, up 918 million bushels or 11.3% versus a year earlier, despite record high second quarter (Q2) corn disappearance of 4.223 billion bushels, up 290 million bushels or 7.4% from the same period last year. Highlighting Q2 corn disappearance is record large quarterly export shipments, which we estimate at 821 million bushels, up a hefty 18.3% from a year earlier based on monthly U.S. Census and weekly USDA data. Q2 corn-for-ethanol use we estimate at 1.377 billion bushels, down 1% from last year. As always, the big wild card for corn disappearance is feed/residual use, which is an implied number. We estimate quarterly feed/residual use was up 10.1% from last year based on seasonal use patterns. The December Grain Stocks report implied larger-than-expected and record high Q1 feed/residual use, causing USDA to raise its 2025/26 feed/residual use estimate to 6.2 billion bushels, a big jump of 13.7% over a year earlier. However, it is possible USDA’s December report missed corn stocks that were in transit at the time. This year’s active export program would seem to increase potential that USDA could “find” some stocks in the March survey or future surveys.
Looking at soybeans, we estimate March 1 soybean stocks at 2.112 billion bushels, up 201 million bushels or 10.5% from last year, and the largest since 2020, on total Q2 soybean disappearance of 1.183 billion bushels, down 1.1% from last year. The highlight for soybean usage is the strong U.S. crush, while the lowlight, of course, is the drop off in U.S. exports due to China’s reduced purchases. We estimate the December-February U.S. soybean crush at a record high of 666.2 million bushels, up 7.5% from last year’s 619.9 million. However, Q2 U.S. soybean exports at 542 million bushels, were the lowest in six years, down 6.7% from last year’s 581 million.
Looking at wheat, we estimate March 1 wheat stocks at 1.301 billion bushels, up 64 million bushels or 5.2% from a year earlier. We estimate total December-February wheat disappearance at 401 million bushels, 4.4% above last year’s 383 million, and the highest in three years due to stronger exports. Q2 estimates of wheat, wheat flour and wheat products are estimated at 196 million bushels, up 10.7% versus last year to the highest level in five years.
