Last Friday’s monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush report showed NOPA members crushed 199.96 million bushels of soybeans in October, a record high for any month amid rising demand for soyoil and rising processing capacity. The NOPA crush surpassed most trade expectations and was up 12.8% from September and up 5.4% from October 2023. Record highs were also set for soyoil and soymeal production while NOPA-member soyoil stocks were virtually unchanged from the 10-year low they hit at the end of October as implied monthly soyoil disappearance also hit a new record high.
Even though the NOPA crush was record large, it was marginally below the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s current 2024/25 U.S. soybean crush forecast of 2.410 billion bushels. The October NOPA crush equaled 8.30% of USDA’s full U.S. 2024/25 crush forecast of 2.410 billion bushels. On average over the prior five years, the October NOPA crush equaled 8.34% of USDA’s final marketing year crush. The combined September-October NOPA crush, though, equaled 15.66% of USDA’s crush forecast, above the prior five-year average of 15.53%. The NOPA crush also grew in part due to NOPA’s addition of South Dakota Soybean Processors, which rejoined the organization in September. However, it is important to note that USDA’s forecast likely takes into account further additions to U.S. crush capacity that are expected during the marketing year.
Thanks to rising use of soyoil for renewable diesel/biodiesel production, implied monthly NOPA soyoil disappearance surged to 2.368 billion pounds, up 8.3% from September and 5.0% from October 2023 and surpassing the previous record high set in March 2022. The rise in soyoil disappearance offset record monthly soyoil production of 2.371 billion pounds, leaving Oct. 31 NOPA-member soyoil stocks at 1.069 billion pounds.
Uncertainty about U.S. biofuels policy under the incoming Trump administration 2.0 has put prospects for biofuels production growth and the growth of the U.S. crush over the next several years in doubt. Continued growth in the crush will likely be needed, though, to offset U.S. loss of export market share to Brazil. Historically, the domestic crush has been a much more important source of demand for the soybean market than exports, but that shifted briefly in the 2010s as China’s soybean imports surged. Now the trade has been reversing itself and that reversal figures to continue with Brazilian production continuing to grow, while expected Trump trade policies and a strong dollar limit overseas demand for U.S. beans.
