GRAIN COMMENTS
SOYBEAN HEDGE REMINDER: Buy $10.50 February 2026 put options on 20% of 25/26 production. These options trade off the March futures, currently cost 7 cents, and expire on 1/23/26. This order will take us to 20% hedged for 25/26 production.
CASH CORN SALE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Hedgers: Sell 10% of 25/26 production in the cash market.
Cash Only: Sell 5% of 25/26 production in the cash market.
This takes both hedgers and cash-only marketers to 40% sold on 25/26 crop in the cash market.
Grain and oilseed futures are mixed as the weekend approaches, with traders readying for Monday’s USDA reports. Corn is up 1 to 2 cents, and soybeans are up 3 to 5. Wheat is steady to lower, and cotton is lower as well. Rice futures are mixed.
In outside markets, the Dow is up 200 points, and the dollar index is up 0.3%. Gold is up $40. Crude oil is up $1.50, with support from protests in Iran and the prospect of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brazil’s weather outlook remains broadly favorable, with only modest tweaks from recent forecasts. Recent rains have eased, but regular precipitation is still expected across most growing areas over the next two weeks according to World Weather Inc., maintaining adequate soil moisture and supporting crop development. Northeastern Brazil remains the driest area, and will need more rain later this month. As the soybean harvest progresses, regular rains could become a little bit more of a liability for corn by delaying planting, but as of now there’s no indication that will be a problem. Nor is there an indication of any shift to drought.
In Argentina, heavy rains late this week are boosting soil moisture across central and northern areas, improving crop conditions there. But World Weather notes dryness and rising stress persist in west-central and southern Argentina, including San Luis, southwestern Cordoba, and La Pampa. Rainfall next week will be critical for stabilizing production prospects.
As noted this morning, USDA reported a flash export sale this morning of 198,000 metric tons to “unknown destinations,” which the market will assume to be China. China’s Sinograin will hold its first soybean auction of the year as it works to make room for U.S. shipments. In December it offered a total of 1.5 MMT in three different auctions, but prices and the amount purchased fell each time. Traders told Reuters they expected roughly 4 MMT to be released in the current cycle of auctions, which will offer soybeans from as far back as 2022. U.S. soybeans remain at a premium to Brazilian soybeans, and that seems unlikely to change given the large South American harvest set to pick up in the coming weeks.
After falling to session lows shortly after reopening this morning, futures have recovered, with price support coming from a report that Russia has attacked two foreign-flagged civilian vessels with drones in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, killing a Syrian national and injuring another.
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said in a statement that one ship had been sailing along Ukraine’s maritime export corridor to pick up a grain cargo at the port of Chornomorsk, and was under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis. The other, near the Odesa port, was under the flag of the Comoros Islands and was carrying soybeans.
The arrival of rains in parts of the U.S. HRW wheat belt put some pressure on prices earlier. Price strength also continues to be limited by ample world wheat supplies and stiff export market competition. Pre-USDA report positioning has created choppy price action.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
ADVICE REMINDER: HOG HEDGERS were earlier advised to sell June 2026 lean hog futures at $103.50 stop-close-only against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings.
Livestock futures are mostly lower at noon CT with lean hog futures ranging from 48 cents lower to 18 cents higher in choppy pre-weekend trade. Live cattle futures are $1.25 to $1.98 lower under pressure from a continued lack of significant trade in Plains cash markets, while feeder cattle futures are $2.45 to $4.38 lower under apparent pressure from technically-driven speculative profit taking.
Lean hog futures have recovered significantly from early weakness on support from strong midday wholesale pork prices. It seems unlikely our sell stop in June futures will be triggered today. Nearby Feb. futures continue to chop sideways, with their premium to the CME cash lean hog index and ample nearby hog supplies limiting buying interest.
The composite pork cutout value was $4.94 at midmorning at $95.73 on support from a $12.17 jump in the pork belly component and a $3.20 rise in the loin component. The national avg. negotiated cash carcass price at midmorning was at $68.56. The weighed avg. price of hogs sold under swine/pork market formula agreements at midmorning was $79.54, down 85 cents vs. Thursday morning. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 27 cents lower at $80.98, and is expected to fall another 13 cents on Monday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 483,000 head, up 16,000 vs. last year, while the Saturday slaughter is seen at 164,000 head, up 1,000 vs. last year. The avg. pork packer operating margin is estimated at $12.20 per head, down from $14.85 on Thursday.
Live cattle futures are on or near their session lows, with Feb. futures below $233.50 after earlier trading as high as $235.63. Feb. is pushing at its 10-day moving avg., while the 18-day moving avg. is further potential support at about $231.80. Most-active Mar. feeder cattle futures failed earlier at a 3-session high of $358.85 and are now more than $4 off that high. A Mar. close below Thursday’s low of $353.35 could trigger a stronger wave of speculative profit taking.
There is now some light live cattle trade occurring in Nebraska, with DTN reporting sales of 500 head there at $233, up $1 from light Thursday trade and from last week. Renewed packer bids of $232 for live cattle are reported in Kansas, but southern Plains feedlots are holding out for $235-$237. Trade turned moderately active Thursday afternoon in Nebraska, with USDA reporting negotiated sales of 14,362 head there at $230-$232 live, mostly $232 and mostly $365 on a dressed carcass basis, up $5 from last week. Thursday negotiated trade in Kansas totaled just 120 head. Beef cutout values ranged from 62 cents to $1.55 lower at midmorning, with the choice cutout value at $355.24. The avg. beef packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $216.75 per head, down from minus $236.50 on Thursday.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 35% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25); aside futures; short July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25);. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Long January $81 put options on Feb. 2026 lean hog futures (12-17-25), short $108 call options against June 2026 lean hog futures (1-2-26). Aside futures.
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures and options.
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder sellers are aside futures. Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: No forward cash purchases advised. SOYMEAL: 100% of 1st qtr. needs bought in the cash market; 50% of 2nd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (1-7-26).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25). Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
