USDA’s Aug. 12 Crop Report pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre, which would be a record high, surpassing the 2016 level of 51.9 bushels. The August yield estimate was 1.1 bushels above USDA’s July trend-line forecast. However, that negative news was more than offset by the surprising drop of 2.431 million acres, or nearly 3%, in harvested soybean area versus what was estimated in USDA’s June 30 Crop Acreage report. As a result, USDA lowered its 2025 U.S. crop forecast from July by 43 million bushels. Harvested soybean acres are now expected to be down 5.946 million, or 6.9% from 2024.
Looking at soybean yields by state, 10 of the 18 states that USDA reports on in its weekly Crop Progress report are projected to match or exceed their previous record high average yields, led by five of the six states with the largest harvested area – Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota and Missouri. However, estimated harvested area declined versus the June estimates in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri by a combined total of 500,000 acres. Overall, harvested acres were lowered from June in 13 of the top 18 states producing states. Michigan was the only one of those states where acreage was higher in August than in June.
Reports of high soybean pod counts from this week’s Midwest crop tour support the potential for a record U.S. yield. Of course, whether that potential is realized will still depend heavily on weather conditions during late August and September when much of the crop will be filling pods. The lower acreage estimate has boosted market anxiety about yield reductions. History does suggest USDA’s yield and crop forecasts could fall at least slightly from the August level, although the historical tendency for the soybean yield estimate to decline is not as strong as it is for the corn yield. Since 2000, USDA has raised its U.S. soybean yield estimate 10 times in August and in seven of those years, the final yield wound up below the August forecast by anywhere from 0.2% to 6.4%, with the declines averaging 3.6%. The other three times, in 2014, 2015 and 2016, the final yield came in higher than the August estimate by 2.4%, 4.6% and 6.1%, respectively.
An average yield drop from August of 3.6% would mean a final yield of only 51.7 bushels, 1.0 bushel above last year and a crop of just 4.141 billion bushels, down 151 million from USDA’s current estimate, which would mean very tight soybean supplies. A modest yield increase of 2.4% would mean a final yield of 54.9 bushels and a crop of 4.398 billion bushels, 106 million above USDA’s current estimate. Using regression analysis, an index of U.S. crop conditions, based on USDA’s August 17 crop ratings implies a big U.S. average yield 5% above the 20-year linear trend of 52.7 bushels. That would put the U.S. yield at 55.35 bushels per acre, but the correlation between the crop ratings and final soybean yields is not very strong.
