CORN COMMENTS
Corn futures showed limited movement in continued cautious, choppy trade, ending between 3/4 of a cent lower to 1 1/4 cents higher. The nearby contract edged lower as continued harvest pressure offset support from another big weekly export sales total. Favorable weather in S. America remained a negative market factor as well, while strength in soybean prices and crude oil future was supportive. Dec. corn futures fell 3/4 of a cent to $4.10 3/4, while Mar. futures rose 1/2 cent to $4.26 and July futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $4.39 3/4.
The corn futures market remains extremely quiet this week with traders not willing to make substantial moves. Corn futures trading volume fell to a 3-week low on Wednesday and remained low today. The market appears well-priced for now and uncertainty about the Presidential Election may be contributing to the cautious market tone. Nearby Dec. futures have traded a range of just 5 1/2 cents over the first four days of the week. Dec. corn now has nearby chart support at $4.09 1/4 with more important support remaining at $3.97-$4.02 1/4. Nearby resistance is at $4.12 3/4 and $4.14 1/4-$4.14 3/4.
U.S. corn export sales for 2024-25 to date through Oct. 24 totaled more than 1.016 bil. bu. and were a hefty 41.3% above a year earlier and well above the 5-yr. avg. as well. Export sales are now comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s marketing year export forecast of 2.325 bil. bushels. Sales through Oct. 24 equaled 44% of USDA’s forecast, while over the prior 5 years, they equaled 40% of final exports at the same point. Actual export shipments are also running ahead of the needed pace.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said today that planting of Argentina’s 2024-25 corn crop was 34.5% complete as of Wednesday, up 5.6 percentage points from a week earlier and 11.1 points above last year thanks to improved moisture conditions. The exchange rated corn conditions 26% good/excellent, 60% “normal” and 14% poor. Moisture conditions were rated adequate to optimal on 86% of corn area.
Central Illinois spot corn basis bids are steady, ranging from 40 under to 8 under Dec. futures, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the Gulf are slightly weaker vs. Wednesday afternoon as barge freight rates continue to ease a bit. The CIF bid for November delivery is 1 cent weaker at 88 over Dec. futures, with the bid for December delivery 2 cents weaker at 87 over, while the bid for January delivery is 1 cent weaker at 77 cents over Mar. futures. Offers for November shipment of U.S. corn free-on-board from the Gulf eased 3 cents to 120 over Dec. futures today.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures rose for a second straight day, posting modest gains of 3 1/4 to 6 cents on support from a big weekly export sales total, technically-driven buying/short covering and strength in crude oil and soyoil futures. Gains were limited by ample U.S. soybean supplies and a continued favorable weather outlook in S. America. Nov. soybeans rose 6 cents to $9.82 1/2, while Jan. futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $9.94 1/2 and Mar. rose 4 cents to $10.09 1/2. Dec. soyoil futures rose 133 points to 45.14 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures fell $2.10 to $299.50.
Today’s soybean futures action was positive overall, with Jan. and more deferred contracts showing follow-through to the bullish reversals they charted on Wednesday. The close was not the strongest, though, with futures ending near midrange for the day. Price action may be very choppy the next couple of days due to position evening ahead of the Presidential Election, which is seen as important for U.S. trade relations with top soybean buyer China.
Most-active Jan. soybean futures now have nearby chart resistance at $9.99 1/4-$10.00, with nearby support at $9.88 1/4 and key support at $9.77 1/4. The market will still have to climb past last week’s high at $10.18 to strongly confirm it has put in another major low. The really strong charts right now are those for soyoil futures. Dec. soyoil today posted its highest close since mid-July. A close above 45.65 cents would open potential for Dec. soyoil to move test 49 cents. The strength in soyoil prices continues to weigh on soymeal prices.
U.S. soybean export sales for 2024-25 to date through Oct. 24 totaled 965.1 mil. bu., 13.4% above a year earlier. China bought another 26.3 mil. bu. of U.S. soybeans during the week ended Oct. 24, taking its total known purchases of U.S. beans to 408.8 mil. bushels. Despite that, sales continue to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s 2024-25 export forecast of 1.850 bil. bushels. Export sales equaled 52% of that forecast, while over the prior 5 yrs., sales equaled 58% of final exports at the same point. Meanwhile, the dollar has now surged to a new 34-month high against the Brazilian real, which is not favorable for U.S. export prospects.
Argentina’s 2024-25 soybean planting season is now underway, with 3.3% of the expected acreage planted as of Wednesday, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. The exchange noted that the planting season has started favorably after recent rains left significant moisture accumulations in Argentina’s central crop belt. More rain is forecast for
coming days, the exchange noted.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are steady, ranging from 20 cents under Nov. futures to 10 cents over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the Gulf are mixed vs. Wednesday afternoon The bid for November delivery is 5 cents weaker at 108 over Nov. futures, while the bid for December delivery is 1 cent stronger at 86 over Jan. futures and the bid for January delivery is steady at 83 over.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures ended lower under pressure from rains in the U.S. HRW wheat belt, ample U.S. supplies and stiff export market competition. Chicago wheat was down 3 to 5 cents, settling at $5.70 ½ in the December, $5.90 ¼ in the March and $6.01 ½ in the May. Kansas City wheat was down 6 to 7 cents, settling at $5.69 ¼ in the December, $5.83 in the March and $5.93 ½ in the May. Minneapolis wheat was down 4 to 5 cents, settling at $6.04 ¼ in the December, $6.28 ¼ in the March and $6.40 ¼ in the May.
Rains this week have heavily favored eastern areas of the Plains HRW belt, with widespread totals of more than an inch across central and eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, while western areas of those states saw little if anything. Rains will continue to favor the east, but between now and early next week western HRW areas from Texas through Kansas are expected to see healthy rains as well. In parts of central Oklahoma the rains might be excessive and cause some flooding, but overall this is should be a positive event for HRW crop prospects.
Elsewhere, while parts of southern Spain have seen phenomenal rains and flooding this week, most of western Europe has been drying out after a soggy start to fall. That includes France, where the crop was 41% planted as of Sunday, France AgriMer said today, up from 21% last week but still down from 60% a year ago.
Net weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at 15.1 million bushels, in line with trade expectations that ran 11.0-22.0 million bushels but down from the previous week’s sales of 19.6 million bushels. U.S. wheat export sales for 2024-25 to date through Oct. 24 totaled 495.9 million bushels, 18.8% above a year earlier, but still behind the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s marketing year export forecast of 825 million bushels. Export sales equaled 61% of USDA’s forecast as of Oct. 24, while over the prior 5 years, they averaged 64% of final exports at the same point.
Quoted Russian wheat export prices have reportedly dropped to a 3-week low on softer demand, after climbing to a 4-month high earlier in October. HRW wheat futures are weakest.
Algeria’s OAIC has started buying wheat in its current import tender, with traders estimating its purchases so far at 480,000-500,000 MT. Initial purchases were reported at around $263 per MT cost and freight included. That’s little changed from the price paid by OAIC in it’s last import tender, which closed on Oct. 9. A large portion of the current purchase is expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region including Bulgaria and Romania, traders told Reuters News Service.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
COTTON HEDGE REMINDER: Our morning hedge recommendation to sell March 2025 cotton futures on 20% of 2024 production was triggered on today’s close.
Cotton futures ended modestly lower amid technical selling as nearby contracts fell to fresh seven-week lows. December cotton settled down 35 points to 69.57, after trading a range of 69.26 to 70.12. March cotton ended down 37 points to 71.83, and May cotton was down 39 points to 73.46.
Weekly cotton net export sales were encouraging once again at 189,400 bales, up 47% from the four-week average. Vietnam was the top buyer at 91,000 bales. China’s buying still seems a little underwhelming relative to recent purchases in corn and soybeans, but it has picked up recently, and China bought 31,600 bales in the latest weekly report. Cotton shipments were also solid at 134,400 bales, up 50% from the four-week average.
Rice futures were mixed. November rice settled up 12 cents to $14.69 ½, after trading a range of $14.68 to $14.80 ½. January is the most-active contract, and it settled down 1 cent to $14.70, while March settled flat at $14.96.
Rice exports were a mixed bag: Net sales of just 12,700 metric tons were a marketing year low. But weekly rice export shipments of 90,400 metric tons were a marketing year high and included more than 10,000 metric tons ton Haiti, Mexico, Japan and Honduras.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures were narrowly mixed. October live cattle went off the board up $4.60 to $193.00. December lost 13 cents to $186.30, and February was down 28 cents to $186.775. Some 2025 contracts ended slightly higher. Wholesale beef prices were down sharply, with the afternoon Boxed Beef report showing Choice down $1.84 and Select down $3.95.
Plains direct cash markets were mostly quiet today, although USDA did report some more moderate trade in Nebraska at $190, steady to $2 from most of last week’s trade. Kansas saw light trade at $190 per USDA, steady with yesterday and with last week. Trading is likely mostly finished for the week. Some feedlots are still holding out for higher prices, asking $293 for live cattle in the southern Plains. The average beef packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at $29.00 per head, down from $33.35 per head on Wednesday.
Feeder cattle futures ended mostly lower. October went off the board at $1.025 to $251.975. November futures ended down 13 cents to $245.375, and January feeders were down 65 cents to $241.325.
Lean hog futures were mixed in choppy trade. December lean hog futures lost 58 cents to $83.80, February was down 50 cents to $85.20, and April was up 5 cents to $88.10. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was up $1.54. Technically, some futures contracts including the December and April made new contract highs today.
Hog market fundamentals have been strong recently, but this afternoon’s negotiated cash carcass cutout value was down $2.10, USDA said. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is up $1.05 at $86.78 and is expected to jump another $1.15 on Friday. Monday-Wednesday hog slaughter was down 1,000 from last week. Today’s slaughter is expected to run 486,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but steady with last year.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS:
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts. (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-4-23, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 1-2-2024, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 12-13-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP:40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24).; short $5.00 call options on Dec. 2024 corn futures against 20% (4-18-24); aside futures.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended; aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 12-1-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-2023, 7-19-23, 11-15-23, 12-5-23, 1-2-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24).
2024 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-23, 7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-9-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24).
2024 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24), aside futures.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP:100% cash sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24)
2025 CROP: 20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24); short July 2025 futures on 30% (10-18-24, 10-28-24).
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24), short July 2025 futures on 30% (10-18-24, 10-28-24).
LEAN HOGS: Short April 2025 lean hog futures against 25% of 1st qtr. marketings (10-25-24); short June 2025 lean hog futures against 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (9-26-24).
LIVE CATTLE: Short Feb. 2025 futures against 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (10-15-24); Short June 2025 futures against 50% of 2nd qtr. marketings (10-15-24).
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are short Nov. 2024 feeder cattle futures against 50% of 4th qtr. marketings (10-15-24); short Jan. 2025 feeder cattle futures against 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (10-15-24); short May 2025 feeder cattle futures against 25% of 2nd qtr marketings (10-15-24). Buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: Short Oct. 2024 Class III milk futures on 75% of 4th qtr. sales (5-15-24, 6-17-24, 9-5-24), short Jan. 2025 Class III milk futures on 25% of 1st qtr. sales (9-5-24). We have recorded futures positions for track record purposes. Milk producers were advised to make either cash or futures sales, based on their preference.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in cash market; long Mar. 2025 futures on 50% of 1st qtr. needs. SOYMEAL: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in cash market; long Mar. 2025 soymeal futures against 50% of 1st qtr. (9-27-24).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP:100% sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-3-23, 8-30-23, 11-1-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24); 2024 CROP: 45% forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-30-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24, 2-28-24, 3-5-24, 3-14-2024). 2024 CROP: 35% cash forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24), short Mar. 2025 cotton futures on 20% (10-31-24).
RICE: 2023 CROP:100% cash forward contracted (4-25-23, 5-30-23, 7-20-23, 7-31-23, 8-7-23, 11-22-23, 12-5-23, 1-4-24, 2-13-24, 3-25-24). 2024 CROP:70% forward contracted (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24).