The grain markets have now gone without USDA data on export sales and shipments for four weeks due to the U.S. government shutdown. We don’t have a good reading on U.S. export sales for that period as weekly trade estimates fall in wide ranges. However, despite the absence of actual shipment data, we do have a good idea of the pace of export shipments since USDA has continued to publish its weekly Grain Export Inspections report, which is paid for through grain inspection fees. Export inspections normally run fairly close to actual shipments.
Although it remains early in the marketing year, corn export inspections data indicates U.S. export shipments for 2025/26 delivery remain well ahead of last year’s pace. Corn export inspections for the marketing year through Oct. 16 totaled nearly 368 million bushels and, as can be seen in the chart at right, were 61% higher than a year earlier, and more than double the five-year average. Inspections were likely the highest on record for the first 6-plus weeks of the marketing year. While it’s still very early in the marketing year, based on the current pace of inspections, it’s very possible U.S. corn exports for 2025/26 could reach 3.1 billion bushels or a bit more, topping USDA’s September estimate by at least 125 million bushels.
Soybean export inspections for 2025/26 delivery as of Oct. 16 totaled 203.5 million bushels, 91 million bushels or 31% below a year earlier and 29% below the five-year average amid China’s likely continued absence from the U.S. market. Since USDA in September projected 2025/26 exports would total 1.685 billion bushels, 10.1% below a year earlier, export shipments are not running quite as far behind the expected pace. We must remember, though, that U.S. soybean shipments are usually concentrated during September-January and fall off sharply after that as new-crop Brazilian soybeans reach market. The export pattern might be a bit different this year, if China agrees to some sort of soybean purchase deal as part of a trade agreement, but new-crop Brazilian beans will still likely dominate the export market next spring and summer.
The U.S. wheat export outlook is as strong as it has been in years. Wheat export inspections for 2025/26 as of Oct. 16 totaled 411 million bushels, 70 million bushels or 20% higher than a year earlier, and 23% above the five-year average. The last time inspections were higher as of mid-October was 2016/17. USDA in September forecast U.S. wheat exports would reach 900 million bushels, up about 9% from a year earlier. As of now, U.S. wheat export shipments should still be comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach that forecast. We anticipate that when USDA resumes its monthly Supply/Demand reports, hopefully in November, that it will raise its export forecast further. USDA is likely to be cautious, though, as recent data indicates 2025/26 world wheat production and supplies exceed its September estimate.
