The U.S. share of China’s soybean import market, which has been dropping for several years in the face of increased competition from Brazil, is likely to come under further pressure this year with a bumper crop in Argentina set to offset a drop in Brazil’s production, trade sources in China and Singapore told Reuters News Service early this week. “This year we have large soybean supply coming from Argentina which is going to heat up competition,” said one trader in Singapore at an international company that owns oilseed processing factories in China. “U.S. share is already shrinking. They are going to lose more to Argentina this year.”
While low prices offered by South American suppliers are the main factor driving their rising share of China’s market, tensions between Beijing and Washington also play a role. The upcoming
U.S. presidential election is a factor, as traders fear tensions will escalate further if Donald Trump is returned to the White House. “U.S. market share will continue to decline because you have the political backdrop of elections,” said a Shanghai-based trader with an international trading firm. “If Trump wins, it will be bad for the U.S.- China relationship. A lot of crushers have concerns about possible restrictions on importing U.S. beans.”
As shown below, U.S. export volume to china has been decreasing since the peak in 2016/17, of course with the exception of the trade war years.
