U.S. corn plantings advance 15% this week to 27% complete as of April 28. While there has been talk of planting delays, there simply aren’t any to speak of, yet. The 10 day ECMFW accumulated precipitation forecast, shows at bottom, is calling for 5 inches across most of Iowa, southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and Missouri. Time will tell if this materializes and what if any effect it will have on planting pace. It is worth noting that IA, MN and MO are well ahead of typical planting pace already as shown below.
The average since 1980 is 24% complete, the 5-year average is 25.6% complete, and this includes slow years like 2018 (17%), 2019 (15%) and 2022 (14%).
Planting delays, if they do arise, really won’t impact the markets for another 2-3 weeks. The 2019 delay did not kick corn price into gear until the week of 5/13, ultimately rallying corn from $3.30 to $4.60. If 2019 does become the analog year please keep in mind that the rally started at $3.30 and ended at $4.60, and December corn is currently trading just above $4.60.
The bottom line is right now it is business as usual. Keep an eye on the weather, but we are far from a significant yield impacting delay.
