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USDA Seen Raising Corn Crop, Carryover

USDA is expected to raise its estimate of 2024 U.S. corn production in Friday’s monthly Supply/Demand report and cut its soybean crop forecast slightly based on acreage totals in the June 28 Crop Acreage report.

USDA is also expected to raise its forecasts for 2023/24 and 2024/25 corn ending stocks, while making small changes to its soybean ending stocks estimates.

Trade estimates of the 2024 U.S. corn crop average 15.051 billion bushels, 191 million above USDA’s June forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 25 analysts. USDA’s crop forecast should be based on the June acreage forecast and its adjusted trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre.

Pre-report expectations for 2024 U.S. soybean production average 4.424 billion bushels, 26 million below USDA’s June forecast. As with corn production, USDA’s soybean crop forecast should be based on the June acreage forecast and an adjusted trend-line yield of 52 bushels per acre.

Larger production prospects and a larger old-crop carryout should mean a larger 2024/25 corn carryout forecast. USDA should raise 2023/24 ending stocks after the June 28 quarterly Grain Stocks report showed higher-than-expected June 1 corn stocks.

Pre-report estimates of the 2023/24 corn carryout average 2.047 billion bushels, 25 million above USDA’s June estimate, while expectations for the 2024/25 carryout average 2.289 billion bushels, 187 million above USDA’s June estimate.

USDA is expected to raise its 2023/24 soybean ending stocks estimate slightly based on the quarter Grain Stocks report. Trade estimates of the old-crop carryout average 357 million bushels, 7 million above USDA’s June forecast. Trade expectations for the 2024/25 soybean carryout average 447 million bushels, 8 million bushels below USDA’s June forecast.

USDA is expected to raise both its 2023/24 and 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks estimates based on the larger-than-expected June 1 wheat stocks and expectations for a larger 2024 U.S. wheat crop.

USDA should peg the 2023/24 wheat carryout at 702 million bushels, up from its previous estimate of 688 million, based on the June 1 wheat stocks total. Trade estimates of the 2024/25 wheat carryout average about 785 million bushels,  up 27 million from USDA’s June forecast.


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