GRAIN COMMENTS
SOYBEAN MEAL REMINDER: This morning we recommended buying the rest of 2nd quarter soybean meal needs at this time, taking us to 100% purchased for 2026 1st and 2nd quarters.
Grain and oilseed futures are mixed at mid-day, with soybeans retreating from earlier highs. Corn is up 1 to 2 cents but soybeans are flat, while wheat is up 6 to 8 cents. Cotton is down 8 to 10 points.
In outside markets, the Dow is up 500 points, and the dollar index is down 0.4%. Gold is up $40, and crude oil is down by a dollar.
Weekly ethanol output for the week ended Friday fell sharply from the record-shattering high of 1.196 million barrels per day the prior week. But output was still solid at 1.119 million per day and the four-week average was up 2.9% from a year ago. Output in the next two weeks could take a hit from the snowstorm and brutal bitter cold set to grip much of the eastern half of the U.S. through the weekend. Ethanol stockpiles as of Friday were 25.7 million, up from 24.5 million the prior week but down 0.5% from a year ago.
Ethanol exports, meanwhile, remained robust at an average of 218,000 barrels per day on the week, up from 119,000 the prior week. The four-week average of 150,000 was up from 137,000 a week earlier. Ethanol was one ag export potentially threatened by U.S. dispute with Europe over Greenland and threatened tariffs, as it is a growing customer. So news of a resolution to the Greenland issue this week is a relief.
Gasoline demand of 7.834 million barrels per day was down from 8.304 million the prior week. The four-week average is down 0.6% from a year ago. Crude oil stocks of 426.0 million barrels were up from 422.4 million the prior week, and up 3.5% from a year ago.
Expectations for a large Brazilian soybean crop continue to solidify. Today Brazil’s Abiove projected the crop at 177.124 MMT, up from 171.481 MMT last year. Exports are seen rising to 111.5 MMT from 108.2 MMT last year, and the crush is also seen higher. The carryout is seen swelling to 9.195 MMT, from 7.071 MMT last year. Also Hedgepoint raised its crop estimate to 179.5 MMT from 178 MMT previously, Reuters reported. USDA earlier this month penciled in 178.0 MMT for Brazil’s crop, up from 175.0 MMT previously.
Wheat futures have rebounded strongly this morning on support from technically-driven short covering, speculative bargain hunting and worries about frigid air moving into U.S. winter wheat regions. A weaker dollar has likely provided price support as well and concerns about persistent extreme cold in Russian winter wheat regions may be another supportive market factor along with higher Russian export prices.
Mar. SRW wheat futures are trading inside of their Wednesday price range, but have pushed near their session high after holding nearby support at Tuesday’s low. Mar. wheat has nearby support at $5.07-$5.07 3/4, with nearby resistance at $5.16 3/4. Mar. HRW wheat is also trading an inside day and has nearby support at $5.18 1/2-$5.19 3/4, with nearby resistance at $5.27 1/4-$5.29.
A winter storm is still expected to bring beneficial moisture to the southern Plains starting Friday. Before the snow begins though, subzero morning temperatures in Nebraska and the most northern counties in Kansas on Friday could cause some winterkill, World Weather Inc. says. This area has no snow on the ground and won’t get snow on the ground until mainly after Friday morning.
Significant cold weather will affect the Former Soviet Union region today through Sunday before a warming trend arrives, World Weather Inc. says. The coldest air will occur across central and northern production areas of Russia. World Weather sees no concern of any winterkill due to the entire region having favorable snow cover, however, Moscow-based consultancy SovEcon said it may cut its 2025-26 Russian crop estimate if the cold spell persists for a week or more.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Livestock futures are mixed in thin, choppy trade at 11:25 a.m. CT, with lean hog futures ranging from 3 cents lower to 48 cents higher, while live cattle futures range from 63 cents lower to 5 cents higher and feeder cattle futures range from 43 cents lower to 50 cents higher. Lean hog futures started out strongly on support from cash market strength, but are now near session lows. Live cattle futures have come under light pressure from the lack of Plains cash trade so far this week and pre-USDA report position evening. Feeder cattle futures are feeling light pressure from speculative profit taking.
Most-active April lean hog futures gapped higher on this morning’s open and jumped to a new contract high of $97.05, but are now sitting near $96.00 and have filled most of their upward gap. Nearby chart support for April is at $95.83 and $94.75. June futures have charted a new high of $109.20 but are now at $108.35, with nearby chart support at $107.88 and $107.30. Hog futures are technically-overbought again on short-term momentum indicators are looking high priced fundamentally, which could spur more significant speculative profit taking at any time.
The composite pork cutout value at midmorning was 60 cents higher at $94.58. The weighted avg. price for hogs sold under swine/pork market formula agreements is $82.72, up 52 cents from Wednesday. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 37 cents higher at $82.40 and is expected to rise another 67 cents on Friday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 494,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and 30,000 from last year. The avg. pork packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at $16.10 per head, down from $16.80 on Wednesday.
Live cattle futures have so far traded narrow ranges of less than $1.50 as market participants cautiously await fresh news out of Plains cash markets and Friday afternoon’s monthly Cattle-on-Feed report. Traders may also remain leery of New World Screwworm concerns. Although last Friday’s Rumors of the parasite reaching the U.S. proved false, the potential for an actual U.S. case hangs over both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets.
Most-active April live cattle earlier traded to a 3-session high of $235.50, but have now slipped back below $235.00, with nearby support at $234.33 and $232.95. June live cattle traded to a 3-session high of $231.75, but are now below $231.00, with nearby support at $230.48 and $229.15. Most-active Mar. feeder cattle futures have traded as high as $360.53 and have nearby support at $358.43 and at $355.30-$356.10.
Plains direct cash cattle markets are looking quiet again this morning. No packer bids are reported. Scattered asking prices have emerged in Nebraska at $370 on a dressed carcass basis, but no asking prices have been established in the southern Plains. USDA reports very limited Wednesday negotiated trade of 152 head in Kansas as $232-$233 live. It’s unclear if any substantial trade will develop ahead of Friday’s USDA report. Beef cutout values ranged from 22 cents to $2.41 lower at midmorning, with the choice cutout at $365.89. The avg. beef packer operating margin is estimated by HedgersEdge at minus $153.95 per head, up from $165.90 on Wednesday.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP:100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25, 1-9-26).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24, 12-12-24, 2-5-25, 2-21-25, 4-15-2025, 6-5-25, 6-20-25).
2025 CROP: 40% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (2-5-25, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 7-9-25, 1-9-26); aside futures; short July 2026 $5.40 call options against 10% (6-6-25).
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-12-25, 2-26-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-25, 11-4-25, 12-1-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24, 12-18-24, 2-5-25, 2-26-25, 4-15-25, 4-29-25, 6-2-25, 6-23-25).
2025 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts or regular forward contracts (2-12-25, 6-23-25, 7-9-25, 9-2-2025, 11-4-25, 12-1-25), aside futures, long $10.50 February put options on Mar. 2026 futures against 20% (1-9-26).
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25), aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25);. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2025 CROP: 80% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25).
Hedgers: 2025 CROP: 70% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24, 2-24-25, 6-9-25, 6-10-25, 6-24-25, 11-6-25); aside futures. 2026 CROP: No sales advised.
LEAN HOGS: Aside futures and options.
LIVE CATTLE: Short Feb. 2026 live cattle futures on 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (1-16-26); short April 2026 live cattle futures on 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (1-16-26)
FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder sellers are short Mar. 2026 feeder cattle futures on 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (1-16-26); short May 2026 feeder cattle futures on 25% of 2nd qtr. marketings (1-16-26). Feeder buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: No forward cash sales advised; aside futures.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: No forward cash purchases advised. SOYMEAL: 100% of 1st qtr. needs bought in the cash market; 50% of 2nd qtr. needs bought in the cash market (1-7-26).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-2025, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, 7-16-25). 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 3-13-25, 3-18-25, 4-28-25, 6-24-25, -16-25), aside futures: 2025 CROP: 10% sold in the cash market (9-17-25). Aside futures.
RICE: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24, 2-21-25. 4-29-25, 7-18-25). 2025 CROP: 10% forward contracted (6-9-25).
