CORN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Corn futures finished anywhere from 3/4 of a cent to 3 3/4 cents lower under pressure from beneficial rains in central Argentina and prospects for further rainfall in most growing areas there, along with weakness in wheat and crude oil futures. Losses were limited by this morning’s USDA announcement of a further significant sale of about 454,000 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico and a weaker dollar. Dec. corn futures fell 3/4 of a cent to $4.24 3/4, while Mar. fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.33 and July futures fell 3 cents to $4.43.
Today’s futures action was disappointing, given the fresh export news and a significantly weaker dollar. Most-active Mar. futures posted their lowest close in 7 sessions, falling back below their 40-day moving average. Mar. now has nearby chart support at $4.31 3/4 and at $4.29, with trendline support at about $4.21 3/4. The market has nearby resistance at $4.35 3/4 and $4.39, with more important resistance at $4.46-$4.52 1/4. Dec. 2025 corn futures are in technical trouble after posting their lowest close in 3 months at $4.32 1/2, just 4 cents above their contract low. A breakout by Dec. 2025 below $4.28 1/2 could potentially set up a move all the way back to $4.00.
S. American weather figures to remain a bearish market factor for now. A significant rain event occurred Sunday night in Argentina from Cordoba to Entre Rios and immediate neighboring areas, fixing poor soil moisture in just hours. The change will greatly improve summer crop planting, emergence and establishment conditions. Additional rain is expected in nearly all of Argentina during the balance of this week and that should perpetuate a very good outlook for summer crop development and fieldwork with good yield potentials remaining in southern wheat areas of the nation.
This morning’s further export sale to Mexico is certainly good news on the demand side of the market. Through Nov. 14, U.S. corn sales to Mexico for 2024-25 were running 10.2% ahead of 2023-24, when Mexico bought a record amount of U.S. corn. Despite that, U.S. export sales have been less dependent on Mexico than last year, with Mexico accounting for 41% of all U.S. corn sales through Nov. 14, vs. 52.8% a year earlier.
Central Illinois corn processor spot basis bids are steady, ranging from 18 cents under Dec. futures to 10 over, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of corn to the Gulf are steady to slightly weaker vs. Friday afternoon. The CIF bid for November delivery is steady at 80 over Dec. futures, with the bid for December delivery 1 cent weaker at 81 over, while the bid for January delivery is 1 cent weaker at 73 over Mar. futures.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Soybean futures managed to eke out small gains ranging from 1 3/4 to 2 3/4 cents in choppy trading despite pressure from rains in central Argentina, favorable Brazilian weather forecasts and weakness in grain and crude oil futures. A weaker dollar and soymeal market strength provided support for prices. Jan. soybeans rose 2 1/4 cents to $9.85 3/4 and Mar. rose 2 cents to $9.94 1/4, while July soybeans rose 2 cents to $10.10 1/4. Dec. soyoil futures fell 56 points to 41.21 cents, while Dec. soymeal futures rose $4.50 to $293.70.
Although soybean futures posted small gains, they finished near their session lows and remain on shaky ground from a technical standpoint. Nearby Jan. futures are still sitting just above key chart support and now have nearby resistance at $9.93 1/4. A close by Jan. beans below $9.76 could signal a new downward move. Mar. have established nearby chart resistance at $10.00 3/4 while support is at $9.82 1/2-$9.85 1/4, the new lows established last week. Nov. 2025 beans have nearby chart support at $10.00, with nearby resistance at $10.15 1/4.
S. American weather should remain a negative factor in the soybean market, even more so than in the corn market. As noted in corn comments, weather in Argentina is looking favorable for planting and early crop development with central Argentina receiving needed rainfall overnight and more rains forecast for most growing areas this week. Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. says weather in Brazil will remain quite favorable over the next two weeks, with timely rains expected in all production areas. Rainfall this week will be enough to keep soil moisture near current levels over much of Brazil. But a lack of abundant rain will be beneficial for aggressive planting and general fieldwork.
Brazil’s CONAB this afternoon estimated that 83.3% of Brazil’s intended soybean area had been planted as of Sunday, up from 73.8% a week earlier and 75% a year earlier. The planting pace was ahead of a year earlier in all 12 states listed, which account for 96% of total planted area. An estimated 5.4% of the crop had started flowering.
Central Illinois processor spot soybean basis bids are steady to 2 cents weaker, ranging from 5 cents under Nov. futures to 9 over Jan. futures, according to USDA. CIF basis bids for delivery of soybeans to the Gulf are weaker vs. Friday afternoon. The bid for November delivery is 3 cents weaker at 86 over Jan. futures, while the bid for December delivery is 3 cents weaker at 84 over and the bid for January delivery is 3 cents weaker at 83 over.
WHEAT COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Wheat futures ended lower, pressured by technical selling and a lack of news out of Ukraine and Russia following last week’s missile attacks. Chicago was down 8 to 10 cents, settling at $5.35 ¾ in the December, March settled at $5.55 3/4, and May settled at $5.66. Kansas City wheat was down 8 to 11 cents, settling at $5.46 ½ in the December, $5.57 in the March and $5.63 ¼ in the May. Minneapolis wheat was down 5 to 6 cents, settling at $5.81 in the December, $5.96 ½ in the March and $6.04 ¼ in the May.
With today’s losses, Chicago wheat has given back all of the “war premium” it added last week, when Ukraine was firing missiles supplied by the U.S. and U.K. for the first time, and Russia was responding with an intercontinental ballistic missile attack. For now the situation has calmed down, and while the war is very much ongoing, as we get closer to a change in power in the White House, there are hopes a ceasefire can be reached.
Today’s weakness may have also been in anticipation of another jump in winter wheat crop ratings, and that is exactly what USDA showed this afternoon. In fact, the jump to 55% good/excellent, from 49% last week, was well above the average analyst estimate of 51%. Just four weeks ago, the rating was 38%. The report reflected dramatic improvement in the central and southern Plains: Top producer Kansas reported a rating of 53% good/excellent, up from 49% last week; Nebraska jumped 14 points to 48%; Oklahoma rose 11 points to 48; and Texas was up five pointes to 52%.
USDA reported U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ended Nov. 21 totaled 13.2 million bushels, up from 7.2 million a week earlier and 10.6 million a year earlier. Inspections were in line with trade expectations. For the marketing year to date, U.S. wheat export inspections total 392.6 million bushels, 31.2% above a year earlier.
Friday’s Supplemental Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed large speculators were net sellers of about 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat future/options during the week ended Nov. 19 pushing their net short position in the market to nearly 85,000 contracts, the largest it has been since late August.
Warmer and drier than average weather across most of the European Union since early October helped farmers accelerate crop sowing and harvesting which had been delayed by heavy rainfall, according to the EU’s crop monitoring service MARS. However, conditions were unfavorable in large parts of southern Europe including Spain, where heavy rains and sometimes catastrophic floods caused delays in planting autumn crops, and major producer Romania.
COTTON AND RICE COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Cotton futures rallied, gaining amid strong recent export demand and short-covering, with help from a retreat in the U.S. dollar. December cotton ended up 1.55 cents to 73.20, while March cotton was up 95 points to 71.72. This market now has some upside momentum, with the most-active March contract ending higher for the sixth straight day and overtaking its 18-day moving average today. It had posted a bullish outside day Friday and saw good follow-through today. Dec. 2024 cotton gapped higher on today’s open.
Today’s Crop Progress report showed 84% of the cotton crop harvested, up from 77% last week and the five-year average of 80%. Texas was 80% harvested, and Georgia 77%.
Brazil cotton plantings are expected to be up significantly this year. Reuters today reports that growers in “frontier” production areas are favoring cotton, particularly over first-crop corn. Nationally, Safras and Mercado sees this year’s cotton plantings up 7.9% to 5.31 million, while production is seen rising 5.6% to 3.89 MMT.
Rice futures ended lower, losing 17 to 21 cents. January rice settled at $14.93 ½, after trading a range of $14.85 ½ to $15.13. March rice settled at $15.03. Unlike cotton, this market is now looking shaky, with the January contract unable to hold above $15 and falling to its lowest level since Nov. 15. It is well off last Monday’s high of $15.37 ½. On the downside, the November low for the January contract is all the way down at $14.28 ½.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTS
NO NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
Live cattle futures were mostly lower, losing 28 to 50 cents in nearby months. December settled at $186.50, February at $187.70, and April at $189.65. The afternoon Boxed Beef report showed Choice up $2.30 and Select up $1.67.
It was a normal quiet Monday morning in Plains direct cash cattle markets with neither packer bids nor feedlot asking prices established as both buyers and sellers take inventory after last week’s trade. Live cattle sales last week mostly occurred at $185-$186, steady to $1 higher than the previous week’s trade. Packers have a short week this week to buy for a full week next week, which could underpin cash prices.
Friday’s USDA Cattle-on-Feed report was largely neutral for the futures market and has had little impact on prices, although the Nov. 1 feedlot inventory was slightly larger than expected. The most concerning thing is that the implied supply of market-ready cattle (on feed for more than 120 days) as of Nov. 1 was 7.6% above a year earlier. Meanwhile cattle weights continue to run at record levels.
Feeder cattle futures ended higher, rallying by more than a dollar with help from softer corn prices and firm cash. January settled up $1.175 to $255.475, March gained $1.20 to $254.325, and April was up $1.175 to $255.525. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Friday was up 18 cents to $254.72.
Lean hog futures ended slightly higher, gaining 25 to 30 cents in nearby months, with support from a strong rebound in wholesale pork prices, which overshadowed weakness in cash hog markets. December settled at $81.975, February settled at $85.925, and April settled at $90.125.The afternoon pork carcass cutout value was up $1.56.
The weighted avg. price of hogs sold under swine/pork market formula agreements was at $84.02, down from $85.09 on Friday morning. The lagging CME cash lean hog index is 43 cents lower at $87.01 and is expected to fall another 55 cents on Tuesday. Today’s hog slaughter is expected to run 487,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 11,000 from last year.
BROCK MARKET POSITIONS:
CORN: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts. (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-4-23, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 1-2-2024, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP: 60% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 11-12-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on regular forward contracts and hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-5-22, 9-29-22, 1-10-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-19-23, 12-13-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-15-24, 5-16-24, 6-20-24).
2024 CROP:50% sold on hedge-to-arrive and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-15-23, 5-8-24, 5-16-24, 11-12-24).; short $5.00 call options on Dec. 2024 corn futures against 20% (4-18-24); aside futures.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended; aside futures.
SOYBEANS: Cash-only marketers: 2023 CROP: 100% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 12-1-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-2023, 7-19-23, 11-15-23, 12-5-23, 1-2-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24).
2024 CROP: 50% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-16-24, 10-8-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts and regular forward contracts (5-4-22, 11-15-22, 1-4-23, 1-20-23, 2-24-23, 6-15-23, 7-6-23, 7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-15-23, 1-2-24, 5-8-24, 5-9-24, 5-16-24, 5-28-24, 6-3-24).
2024 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (7-19-23, 8-22-23, 11-16-23, 5-9-24), aside futures.
2025 CROP: No cash sales recommended. Aside futures.
SRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP:100% cash sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24)
2025 CROP: 20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24); aside futures.
HRW WHEAT: Cash-only Marketers: 2024 CROP: 100% sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 30% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 6-4-24, 10-15-24).
Hedgers: 2024 CROP: 100% cash sold (7-19-23, 4-17-24, 5-8-24, 5-14-24, 5-16-24, 5-30-24, 6-4-24, 9-19-24, 10-15-24, 10-18-24).
2025 CROP: 20% sold on hedge-to-arrive contracts (5-30-24, 10-15-24), aside futures.
LEAN HOGS: Short Feb. 2025 lean hog futures against 33% of 4th qtr. marketings (11-5-24), short April 2025 lean hog futures against 50% of 1st qtr. marketings (10-25-24, 11-15-24); short June 2025 lean hog futures against 50% of 2nd qtr. marketings (9-26-24, 11-15-24); short Aug. 2025 lean hog futures on 50% of 3rd qtr. marketings (11-15-124)
LIVE CATTLE: Aside futures.
FEEDER CATTLE: Sellers are aside futures. Buyers remain aside futures.
MILK: Short Jan. 2025 Class III milk futures on 25% of 1st qtr. sales (9-5-24). We have recorded futures positions for track record purposes. Milk producers were advised to make either cash or futures sales, based on their preference.
FEED BUYERS: CORN: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in cash market. SOYMEAL: 100% of 4th qtr. needs bought in cash market; long Mar. 2025 soymeal futures against 50% of 1st qtr. (9-27-24).
COTTON: Cash-only Marketers: 2023 CROP:100% sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-3-23, 8-30-23, 11-1-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24); 2024 CROP: 45% forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24, 6-28-24).
Hedgers: 2023 CROP: 100% cash sold (5-19-23, 7-19-23, 7-25-23, 8-30-23, 1-19-24, 2-1-24, 2-9-24, 2-12-24, 2-28-24, 3-5-24, 3-14-2024). 2024 CROP: 35% cash forward contracted (2-12-24, 2-27-24, 4-3-24, 6-27-24), aside futures.
RICE: 2023 CROP:100% cash forward contracted (4-25-23, 5-30-23, 7-20-23, 7-31-23, 8-7-23, 11-22-23, 12-5-23, 1-4-24, 2-13-24, 3-25-24). 2024 CROP:70% forward contracted (5-3-24, 5-8-24, 5-28-24, 5-29-24, 7-15-2024, 7-30-24, 9-24-24).
