Weekly COT Highlights – Week Ended Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Main Takeaways this Week
Large spec buying momentum slowed noticeably this week, with specs reducing the pace of buying in corn and soybeans while turning into sellers in wheat. At the same time, index funds were aggressive sellers of both corn and soybeans, reinforcing the caution we expressed last week that grain prices could be vulnerable to a setback. The market is beginning to show more signs that the wave of speculative and index fund buying which supported prices in recent weeks may be losing steam.
Corn
Large specs were still net buyers in the week ended Tuesday, but to the tune of only 1,056 contracts. They’ve likely turned from buyers to sellers, as prices drifted Thursday and Friday. This week they reduced both the number of short and number of long positions. The last time they held more outright long positions was April of 2021, so to say there is massive long liquidation risk would be an understatement.
However, we have not seen an increase in the number of shorts, a sign that specs see significant downside potential, and we likely won’t see that until they get a better picture of national yield prospects. Could be a few weeks.
Bottom line is we are seeing some warning signs in this market, “yellow” flags, but not yet an extreme alarm. As a reminder, these extreme alarms almost always come too late, it’s often the yellow flags that serve as the best warning. If futures take out the lows from 9/11, it could be enough to motivate aggressive long liquidation.
Soybeans
Specs buying continues for the 5th straight week, but the least aggressive week of net buying by far, as specs bought “only” 10,367 contracts, vs that last 4 week average of 28,731.
Incredible fact: Specs hold the largest number of outright long positions since June 28…….of 2016. Currently they hold a whopping 249,891 long positions, and 76,910 shorts. Combined this category accounts for 23% of total open interest.
So just like corn, there are no signs yet that large specs are running for the exit, just that there are so many large spec longs that when they do, this could be a sharp and aggressive selloff.
Wheat
Wheat specs turned sellers for the first time in four weeks, liquidating 24,852 contracts and pushing their net short position back to 42,097 contracts. Speculative gross shorts increased to roughly 111,000 contracts the highest since mid July.
Cotton
Large specs have now been net sellers for two consecutive weeks after getting within 15k contracts of their all time largest net long position set in January of 2018. This is of course the classic “rubber band ready to pop” scenario we warn about. It is the reason we used trailing sell stops to establish hedge protection, which had us short the December contract at 90.50 on September 2nd.
I know the feeling of “missing the boat”, but this setup here continues to show the potential for additional downside pressure, and futures took out long term trendline support this week. Long term, we think cotton will find price support, but that could be weeks from now and take months to recover, and December looks set to test the 76¢ level sooner than later.
Rice
Large specs continue to increase their bullish exposure in the rice market, with their net long position climbing to 2,267 contracts this week, the largest net long since June 2024. Spec were buyers for a fifth consecutive week, extending a steady trend of optimism. Since establishing a record net short position in December 2025, large speculators have purchased 8,750 contracts, resulting in a notable shift in sentiment.
Soybean Meal
NEW ALL TIME RECORD NET LONG. Large specs were net buyers of 32,444 contracts of soybean meal this week, two weeks after buying 45,022 contracts, which was their second largest week of buying in history. Specs now hold an all time record number of outright longs.
We said last week that this was a market that look set for a sharp selloff, and that buyers should be hand to mouth. Tuesday through Thursday we looked like fools, on Friday we looked like heroes. What we’re interested in is looking like we know what we’re talking about in a few months.
We’re not 100% convinced that Friday’s price action is the start of a new trend of liquidation. We are convinced though in our process, and it suggest that there’s more downside risk that upside potential in this market, and a large part of that is long liquidation risk.
Lean Hogs
The question in the lean hog market has gradually shifted from when will specs begin covering their shorts to how much larger can their net short position become. Large speculators were sellers again this week, adding another 12,009 contracts to their bearish bet and pushing their net short position to a new record of 64,279 contracts. The magnitude of this position is astounding when compared to historical norms, as specs continue to extend an already unprecedented short. Equally notable is the commercial side of the market, where commercials have simultaneously built a record net long position.
Cattle Complex
Large speculators were modest buyers in live cattle this week, adding 912 contracts, but their net long position remains historically small at just 17,401. Large specs were buyers for a second consecutive week in feeder cattle, adding 1,079 contracts. Even so, specs remain net short 4,810 contracts, marking one of the few periods over the past several years that speculators have maintained a bearish position in the market. The current net short is a sharp contrast to last year’s record net long of 28,025 contracts
