USDA’s November Crushing reports included the first monthly corn and soybean crush data of the new marketing year.
Currently, USDA is projecting 5.65 billion bushels of corn will be crushed for ethanol in 2026/27, an increase of 100 million bushels from last year’s already impressive total. While it’s still too early to determine whether that forecast will prove accurate, U.S. corn crushed for ethanol is certainly off to a strong start. USDA estimates that 438 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol in September, roughly 3 million bushels more than the same month a year ago. This strong demand has also been reflected in the weekly EIA data. As the second chart shows, ethanol production has consistently remained near the upper end of the five-year range.
Soybean crush during September was somewhat disappointing, although that outcome was generally expected after the weaker monthly crush figure reported in the NOPA data a couple of weeks ago. USDA is currently projecting a record 2.78 billion bushels of soybeans to be crushed during the 2026/27 marketing year. While the slow start is a bit discouraging, September is typically a seasonally slower month for crush. In addition, soybean oil disappearance continues to run ahead of last year’s pace, suggesting underlying demand remains strong. As a result, we expect soybean crush to rebound in the months ahead.
