Cotton
This is getting extreme, and fundamentals aren’t helping. Large specs have held a tremendous net short position since mid June, and set a new record net short position the last two weeks, now at over 56,000 contracts short. Not only is this a record net short, its the largest as a % of total open interest, currently 33% of total OI, and two consecutive weeks at a record number of outright short positions.
Zooming out, large speculator activity has been extremely indicative of price action. On February 27 large specs held a net long of 73,000 contracts, started selling, and haven’t stopped, selling a just under 130,000 contracts between Feb 27 and this recent release current through Tuesday of this week.
Fundamentals are poor. Price charts look poor. Funds may keep selling. We will hold our 25% short futures position established long ago until we see a significant shift in fundamentals, fund activity, or price activity.
Rice
Nothing useful to see here.
