Current Positions
- Long two corn July week 2 424.00 call options for roughly 11 cents, expiring Friday July 10.
- Currently ~$575 profit. Frankly, we like being long corn from this level and would let them expire in the money and assume long futures.
- Long two soybean July week 2 1134.00 call options for roughly 17 cents, expiring Friday July 10.
- Currently ~$4500 profit. Be careful here! the bid/ask spread on this option is ~10¢ wide. Do not use a market order to exit.
- Chart looks good, so we don’t blame you if you want to assume a long August futures positions. But that’s a tidy profit, so if you do want to exit, the simplest way would be to sell August futures. Come Monday morning, these will offset.
New Long Lean Hog Recommendation
Today we like a long hog entry, and are focused on the October contract as it offers two appealing timeframes for limited risk, long call options.
From a technical point of view, the selloff stopped exactly where it should. Futures fell from $94 earlier this year down to $80, matching their November 2025 lows almost to the tick. Futures have chopped around this level now for several weeks after posting a key reversal up on 6/17, which was the first and only buy signal.
The Commitment of Traders report is extremely encouraging for the bulls. Large speculators, as of 6/30 held a net short position of -45,694 contracts, compared to their largest all time net short of -47,112 contracts back in April of 2023. They held that short position and began to aggressively unwind it starting in late May. October futures bottomed on May 26 at ~$69 and rallied to $86 by August 1, a 24% rally. A 24% rally from recent lows would take October futures from $80 to $99. We aren’t suggesting that will happen, but stranger things have.
A 50% retracement of the move from May-June would bring futures back to $86.
Long Hog Recommendation
Entry: Buy 2 October lean hog futures at the market.
- Buy 2 Sep $85 calls, for ~$1.75. These trade off Oct. futures, expires 9/15 (70 DTE)
- Alternative: Buy Oct. $85 call for ~$2.25
Target: $88-90. Series of old lows that could present resistance in the future.
Risk Exit: Exit on a close under $80. We like futures here because our exit is about $1.50 away, about the same as the Sep call option that is $3.50 out of the money.
If you have any questions about the trade or would like to discuss alternative entries (or any other trade really), give your broker a call. If you don’t have one, our main line is 800.558.3431.
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Disclaimer: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Brock Investor Services, Inc believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice is based on the opinion of Brock Investor Services, Inc and reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. There is a risk of losses as well as profits when trading futures and options. This brief statement does not disclose all the risk aspects of derivative trading, therefore careful study carrying FCM’s Risk Disclosure is strongly encouraged before the recipient of this email trades.